Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 election shows a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied near 20 percent, followed by the AfD, Greens, and SPD. This fragmentation, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5 percent threshold, drives expectations for substantial overhang and leveling seats that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current trends and fewer qualifying parties point traders toward comparable or larger totals. Lowering the voting age to 16 and housing-focused campaigning add uncertainty to turnout and second-vote distribution, while BSW and FDP performance near the threshold could further influence proportionality and final size.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于163个及以上 63%
158–162 20%
153–157 12.0%
148–152 5.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
少于143
2%
143–147
2%
148–152
6%
153–157
12%
158–162
20%
163个及以上
63%
163个及以上 63%
158–162 20%
153–157 12.0%
148–152 5.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
少于143
$2,403 交易量
2%
143–147
$1,905 交易量
2%
148–152
$703 交易量
6%
153–157
$833 交易量
12%
158–162
$1,388 交易量
20%
163个及以上
$2,425 交易量
63%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 election shows a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied near 20 percent, followed by the AfD, Greens, and SPD. This fragmentation, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5 percent threshold, drives expectations for substantial overhang and leveling seats that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current trends and fewer qualifying parties point traders toward comparable or larger totals. Lowering the voting age to 16 and housing-focused campaigning add uncertainty to turnout and second-vote distribution, while BSW and FDP performance near the threshold could further influence proportionality and final size.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$9,658结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETElections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 election shows a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied near 20 percent, followed by the AfD, Greens, and SPD. This fragmentation, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5 percent threshold, drives expectations for substantial overhang and leveling seats that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current trends and fewer qualifying parties point traders toward comparable or larger totals. Lowering the voting age to 16 and housing-focused campaigning add uncertainty to turnout and second-vote distribution, while BSW and FDP performance near the threshold could further influence proportionality and final size.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,658结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRecent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 election shows a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied near 20 percent, followed by the AfD, Greens, and SPD. This fragmentation, combined with the mixed-member proportional system’s 78 direct constituencies and 5 percent threshold, drives expectations for substantial overhang and leveling seats that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current trends and fewer qualifying parties point traders toward comparable or larger totals. Lowering the voting age to 16 and housing-focused campaigning add uncertainty to turnout and second-vote distribution, while BSW and FDP performance near the threshold could further influence proportionality and final size.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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