Recent polls show Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties clustered around 20-23% and AfD and the Greens close behind, creating a four-way contest for first place. The CDU’s decision to replace Governing Mayor Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal amid criticism of the January power outage response has coincided with modest erosion in the party’s support since its stronger 2023 showing. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp has capitalized on gains seen in the 2025 federal election in the capital, while late campaigning by federal CDU figures has not yet produced measurable separation. With voting three days away and turnout dynamics still fluid among younger and urban voters, the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing align with the limited polling gap and absence of decisive late shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Linke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 27%
基民盟 0-2% 18%
基民盟2-5% 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Linke 0-2%
27%
Linke 2-5%
31%
Linke 5-10%
8%
Linke 10%+
4%
基民盟 0-2%
18%
基民盟2-5%
12%
基民盟5-10%
9%
基民盟10%+
2%
AfD 0-2%
2%
AfD 2-5%
2%
AfD 领先5%+
2%
其他党派获胜
2%
Linke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 27%
基民盟 0-2% 18%
基民盟2-5% 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Linke 0-2%
$72 交易量
27%
Linke 2-5%
$397 交易量
31%
Linke 5-10%
$61 交易量
8%
Linke 10%+
$121 交易量
4%
基民盟 0-2%
$26 交易量
18%
基民盟2-5%
$47 交易量
12%
基民盟5-10%
$163 交易量
9%
基民盟10%+
$71 交易量
2%
AfD 0-2%
$26 交易量
2%
AfD 2-5%
$26 交易量
2%
AfD 领先5%+
$26 交易量
2%
其他党派获胜
$90 交易量
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties clustered around 20-23% and AfD and the Greens close behind, creating a four-way contest for first place. The CDU’s decision to replace Governing Mayor Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal amid criticism of the January power outage response has coincided with modest erosion in the party’s support since its stronger 2023 showing. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp has capitalized on gains seen in the 2025 federal election in the capital, while late campaigning by federal CDU figures has not yet produced measurable separation. With voting three days away and turnout dynamics still fluid among younger and urban voters, the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing align with the limited polling gap and absence of decisive late shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
交易量
$1,125结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties clustered around 20-23% and AfD and the Greens close behind, creating a four-way contest for first place. The CDU’s decision to replace Governing Mayor Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal amid criticism of the January power outage response has coincided with modest erosion in the party’s support since its stronger 2023 showing. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp has capitalized on gains seen in the 2025 federal election in the capital, while late campaigning by federal CDU figures has not yet produced measurable separation. With voting three days away and turnout dynamics still fluid among younger and urban voters, the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing align with the limited polling gap and absence of decisive late shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$1,125结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETRecent polls show Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU in the September 20 Berlin state election, with both parties clustered around 20-23% and AfD and the Greens close behind, creating a four-way contest for first place. The CDU’s decision to replace Governing Mayor Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers after his withdrawal amid criticism of the January power outage response has coincided with modest erosion in the party’s support since its stronger 2023 showing. Die Linke’s Elif Eralp has capitalized on gains seen in the 2025 federal election in the capital, while late campaigning by federal CDU figures has not yet produced measurable separation. With voting three days away and turnout dynamics still fluid among younger and urban voters, the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing align with the limited polling gap and absence of decisive late shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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