The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25-30% 29%
30-35% 26%
20-25% 17%
35-40% 14%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于20%
13%
20-25%
17%
25-30%
29%
30-35%
26%
35-40%
15%
40%+
5%
25-30% 29%
30-35% 26%
20-25% 17%
35-40% 14%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于20%
$425 交易量
13%
20-25%
$213 交易量
17%
25-30%
$419 交易量
29%
30-35%
$272 交易量
26%
35-40%
$242 交易量
15%
40%+
$254 交易量
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,825结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
交易量
$1,825结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETThe Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October pits Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest shaped by the latter’s recent local gains in Camden wards and the party’s broader London momentum. Starmer’s resignation has opened the seat, with Polanski emphasizing doorstep campaigning on housing, environment, and community issues while Labour highlights continuity under new national leadership. Projections place the Green share near 31 percent, yet variable turnout, tactical voting from other parties, and the final weeks of campaigning keep outcomes fluid. Trader probabilities clustered across the 25–40 percent bands capture this uncertainty in a first-past-the-post race where small shifts in participation or squeeze effects could separate the leading contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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