Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where one seat per state and the Distrito Federal (27 total) will be contested. This reflects PL candidates leading recent state polls in key races like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), and Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), per March 2026 surveys aggregated by VEJA. PL solidified as the Senate's largest bloc with 15 seats in January 2026 via high-profile defections, enhancing organizational strength. The Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signals robust center-right opposition control, while Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) competitiveness in tight presidential runoff polls provides potential coattails. PSD and União trail as distant challengers amid fragmented fields.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PL 81%
UNIÃO 4.3%
社会民主党（PSD） 4.1%
劳工党（PT） 2.9%
$253,913 交易量
$253,913 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
81%
UNIÃO
4%
社会民主党（PSD）
4%
劳工党（PT）
3%
巴西民主运动党（MDB）
3%
巴西社会党（PSB）
2%
共和党
2%
我们可以党
<1%
PSDB
<1%
NOVO
<1%
进步党（PP）
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 81%
UNIÃO 4.3%
社会民主党（PSD） 4.1%
劳工党（PT） 2.9%
$253,913 交易量
$253,913 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$242,655 交易量
81%
UNIÃO
$958 交易量
4%
社会民主党（PSD）
$1,046 交易量
4%
劳工党（PT）
$1,040 交易量
3%
巴西民主运动党（MDB）
$981 交易量
3%
巴西社会党（PSB）
$1,071 交易量
2%
共和党
$1,075 交易量
2%
我们可以党
$1,151 交易量
<1%
PSDB
$1,023 交易量
<1%
NOVO
$1,134 交易量
<1%
进步党（PP）
$935 交易量
<1%
PDT
$843 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where one seat per state and the Distrito Federal (27 total) will be contested. This reflects PL candidates leading recent state polls in key races like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), and Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), per March 2026 surveys aggregated by VEJA. PL solidified as the Senate's largest bloc with 15 seats in January 2026 via high-profile defections, enhancing organizational strength. The Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signals robust center-right opposition control, while Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) competitiveness in tight presidential runoff polls provides potential coattails. PSD and União trail as distant challengers amid fragmented fields.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$253,913结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where one seat per state and the Distrito Federal (27 total) will be contested. This reflects PL candidates leading recent state polls in key races like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), and Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), per March 2026 surveys aggregated by VEJA. PL solidified as the Senate's largest bloc with 15 seats in January 2026 via high-profile defections, enhancing organizational strength. The Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signals robust center-right opposition control, while Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) competitiveness in tight presidential runoff polls provides potential coattails. PSD and União trail as distant challengers amid fragmented fields.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$253,913结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Partido Liberal (PL) at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026, Senate election, where one seat per state and the Distrito Federal (27 total) will be contested. This reflects PL candidates leading recent state polls in key races like Rio de Janeiro (Cláudio Castro), Santa Catarina (Carlos Bolsonaro), and Distrito Federal (Michelle Bolsonaro), per March 2026 surveys aggregated by VEJA. PL solidified as the Senate's largest bloc with 15 seats in January 2026 via high-profile defections, enhancing organizational strength. The Senate's April 29 rejection of President Lula's Supreme Court nominee—the first in 132 years—signals robust center-right opposition control, while Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) competitiveness in tight presidential runoff polls provides potential coattails. PSD and União trail as distant challengers amid fragmented fields.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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