Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the Keelung mayoral race, reflecting his status as the KMT incumbent facing DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei and a minor independent candidate ahead of the November 28 vote. Recent polling shows a competitive contest, with Tung gaining among likely voters in some November surveys and benefiting from cross-party endorsements, while Hsieh maintains support tied to governance satisfaction ratings near 47 percent. The two-candidate dynamic and historical patterns for incumbents in Taiwan local elections appear to anchor the market's assessment, though late shifts in turnout or debate impact could still alter outcomes before results are certified by the Central Election Commission.