Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,590,439 交易量
2026-12-31
December 31
6%
$7,590,439 交易量
December 31
$617,805 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$7,590,439结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,590,439结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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