Persistent military exchanges and the collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026 underscore why traders assign an 81.5% probability against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Ongoing territorial disputes and Russian insistence on maximalist demands have kept formal negotiations stalled despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and trilateral meetings. Ukrainian law bars nationwide votes during active hostilities without a durable ceasefire and security guarantees, a threshold that remains unmet. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any referendum on prior parliamentary approval and international assurances, further slowing timelines. With no breakthrough on core issues and battlefield dynamics unchanged, the market reflects consensus that structural barriers will prevent resolution within the current calendar window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$14,728 交易量
$14,728 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$14,728 交易量
$14,728 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent military exchanges and the collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026 underscore why traders assign an 81.5% probability against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Ongoing territorial disputes and Russian insistence on maximalist demands have kept formal negotiations stalled despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and trilateral meetings. Ukrainian law bars nationwide votes during active hostilities without a durable ceasefire and security guarantees, a threshold that remains unmet. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any referendum on prior parliamentary approval and international assurances, further slowing timelines. With no breakthrough on core issues and battlefield dynamics unchanged, the market reflects consensus that structural barriers will prevent resolution within the current calendar window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
交易量
$14,728结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent military exchanges and the collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026 underscore why traders assign an 81.5% probability against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Ongoing territorial disputes and Russian insistence on maximalist demands have kept formal negotiations stalled despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and trilateral meetings. Ukrainian law bars nationwide votes during active hostilities without a durable ceasefire and security guarantees, a threshold that remains unmet. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any referendum on prior parliamentary approval and international assurances, further slowing timelines. With no breakthrough on core issues and battlefield dynamics unchanged, the market reflects consensus that structural barriers will prevent resolution within the current calendar window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,728结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent military exchanges and the collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026 underscore why traders assign an 81.5% probability against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Ongoing territorial disputes and Russian insistence on maximalist demands have kept formal negotiations stalled despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and trilateral meetings. Ukrainian law bars nationwide votes during active hostilities without a durable ceasefire and security guarantees, a threshold that remains unmet. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any referendum on prior parliamentary approval and international assurances, further slowing timelines. With no breakthrough on core issues and battlefield dynamics unchanged, the market reflects consensus that structural barriers will prevent resolution within the current calendar window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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