Recent police raids in Moscow, including the detention of hundreds of young men on November 12 and bar operations days earlier, have intensified concerns over recruitment shortfalls for Russia's attritional campaign in Ukraine. These actions, described as preventive measures involving summonses and contract pressure, occur as voluntary enlistment targets lag despite regional bonuses. Standard autumn conscription of around 120,000 proceeded in October without broader measures, consistent with repeated official statements ruling out general mobilization. Traders monitor whether sustained manpower gaps or frontline developments prompt a formal decree, versus continued reliance on targeted coercion and incentives ahead of any resolution timeline.