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icon for 2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？
世界·外交政策

2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？

icon for 2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？
世界·外交政策

2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？

8 38.9%

7 24.3%

9 21.0%

10 13.5%

Polymarket

$1,258,194 交易量

8 38.9%

7 24.3%

9 21.0%

10 13.5%

Polymarket

$1,258,194 交易量

icon for 7

7

$12,523 交易量

24%

icon for 8

8

$108,228 交易量

39%

icon for 9

9

$18,484 交易量

21%

icon for 10

10

$17,632 交易量

14%

icon for 11

11

$18,145 交易量

4%

icon for 12

12

$33,688 交易量

3%

icon for 13

13

$85,453 交易量

3%

icon for 14

14

$138,590 交易量

7%

icon for 15个以上

15个以上

$121,269 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US has already carried out military strikes in at least six countries during the first four months of 2026, including Venezuela in January and Iran in late February, alongside ongoing operations against militant groups in Yemen, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq. These confirmed actions have anchored trader consensus around a final tally of eight countries for the full year, with nine viewed as the next most plausible outcome if counterterrorism or counternarcotics strikes expand into one additional theater. Recent developments, such as continued strikes on Houthi targets and drug-interdiction operations in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, reinforce expectations of measured further engagements rather than broad new conflicts. Historical patterns of US military activity in multiple theaters simultaneously support the current implied probabilities, while any escalation or de-escalation in active areas could shift the count before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,258,194
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US has already carried out military strikes in at least six countries during the first four months of 2026, including Venezuela in January and Iran in late February, alongside ongoing operations against militant groups in Yemen, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq. These confirmed actions have anchored trader consensus around a final tally of eight countries for the full year, with nine viewed as the next most plausible outcome if counterterrorism or counternarcotics strikes expand into one additional theater. Recent developments, such as continued strikes on Houthi targets and drug-interdiction operations in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, reinforce expectations of measured further engagements rather than broad new conflicts. Historical patterns of US military activity in multiple theaters simultaneously support the current implied probabilities, while any escalation or de-escalation in active areas could shift the count before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,258,194
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 16 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"8"，概率为 39%，其次是"7"，概率为 24%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 39¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 39%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？"已产生 $1.3 million 的总交易量（自Nov 13, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 16 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？"的当前领先者是"8"，概率为 39%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 39%。紧随其后的结果是"7"，概率为 24%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年，美国将对多少个国家采取军事行动？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。