US military contingency planning has intensified amid the Trump administration's campaign of economic sanctions, including an oil blockade that has triggered widespread blackouts and shortages in Cuba. Late September reports detailed Army Reserve assessments for support units deployable to US Southern Command within 90-120 days, building on earlier reviews of options such as air assaults, though no deployment orders exist. President Trump has publicly downplayed military needs, stating Cuba is a failing state where a deal is preferable to force, while calling for fundamental change and predicting the government's fall at the UN. Cuba has condemned the moves as aggression and continued stalled bilateral talks, with recent US steps including expanded drone operations at Guantanamo Bay. These developments, alongside Cuba's alliances with Russia, China, and Iran, shape trader assessments of escalation risks through late 2026.