Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$6,747结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$6,747结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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