Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$191,777 交易量
$191,777 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$191,777 交易量
$191,777 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$191,777结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$191,777结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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