Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with related facilities, causing confirmed damage to above-ground structures, power systems, and conversion plants while disrupting access to stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium. IAEA assessments note loss of continuity over materials and slowed reconstruction progress, with U.S. intelligence indicating Iran's weaponization timeline remains extended by roughly a year amid ongoing regional conflict and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Negotiations have sought limits on enrichment and verification, though Iran has not resumed large-scale operations. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test by December 31, 2026, faces substantial technical and political barriers. Late recovery of buried materials or rapid repair under reduced pressure remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome within the short resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with related facilities, causing confirmed damage to above-ground structures, power systems, and conversion plants while disrupting access to stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium. IAEA assessments note loss of continuity over materials and slowed reconstruction progress, with U.S. intelligence indicating Iran's weaponization timeline remains extended by roughly a year amid ongoing regional conflict and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Negotiations have sought limits on enrichment and verification, though Iran has not resumed large-scale operations. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test by December 31, 2026, faces substantial technical and political barriers. Late recovery of buried materials or rapid repair under reduced pressure remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with related facilities, causing confirmed damage to above-ground structures, power systems, and conversion plants while disrupting access to stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium. IAEA assessments note loss of continuity over materials and slowed reconstruction progress, with U.S. intelligence indicating Iran's weaponization timeline remains extended by roughly a year amid ongoing regional conflict and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Negotiations have sought limits on enrichment and verification, though Iran has not resumed large-scale operations. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test by December 31, 2026, faces substantial technical and political barriers. Late recovery of buried materials or rapid repair under reduced pressure remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with related facilities, causing confirmed damage to above-ground structures, power systems, and conversion plants while disrupting access to stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium. IAEA assessments note loss of continuity over materials and slowed reconstruction progress, with U.S. intelligence indicating Iran's weaponization timeline remains extended by roughly a year amid ongoing regional conflict and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Negotiations have sought limits on enrichment and verification, though Iran has not resumed large-scale operations. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test by December 31, 2026, faces substantial technical and political barriers. Late recovery of buried materials or rapid repair under reduced pressure remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome within the short resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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