The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 announcement of plans to resume testing, amid U.S. accusations of covert Chinese and Russian nuclear activities, drove initial market movement, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified in November that ordered tests would exclude explosions. The December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act conditionally authorizes underground tests only if a foreign state detonates first. On April 29, 2026, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Congressional debates over FY2026 NNSA funding, including $4.2 billion for science-based testing and evaluation, represent key upcoming hurdles amid diplomatic pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$665,523 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
9%
$665,523 交易量
2026年6月30日
$39,501 交易量
1%
2026年9月30日
$5,584 交易量
6%
2026年12月31日
$10,218 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 announcement of plans to resume testing, amid U.S. accusations of covert Chinese and Russian nuclear activities, drove initial market movement, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified in November that ordered tests would exclude explosions. The December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act conditionally authorizes underground tests only if a foreign state detonates first. On April 29, 2026, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Congressional debates over FY2026 NNSA funding, including $4.2 billion for science-based testing and evaluation, represent key upcoming hurdles amid diplomatic pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$665,523结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 announcement of plans to resume testing, amid U.S. accusations of covert Chinese and Russian nuclear activities, drove initial market movement, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified in November that ordered tests would exclude explosions. The December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act conditionally authorizes underground tests only if a foreign state detonates first. On April 29, 2026, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Congressional debates over FY2026 NNSA funding, including $4.2 billion for science-based testing and evaluation, represent key upcoming hurdles amid diplomatic pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$665,523结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying instead on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations and subcritical experiments managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 announcement of plans to resume testing, amid U.S. accusations of covert Chinese and Russian nuclear activities, drove initial market movement, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified in November that ordered tests would exclude explosions. The December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act conditionally authorizes underground tests only if a foreign state detonates first. On April 29, 2026, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned the U.S. and Russia against resumption. Congressional debates over FY2026 NNSA funding, including $4.2 billion for science-based testing and evaluation, represent key upcoming hurdles amid diplomatic pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题