President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$768,767 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,767 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,767 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$768,767结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$768,767结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing opacity around Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of market pricing. Officials have since clarified that implementation is still under review, with no decision on full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, and restoring readiness for yield-producing detonations faces technical, budgetary, and congressional constraints that historically require 24–36 months. Subcritical and non-explosive experiments continue under stockpile stewardship programs, but these do not resolve markets focused on explosive events. Upcoming congressional appropriations debates and any new diplomatic signals from Beijing or Moscow could shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题