Sustained diplomatic engagement between the United States and China, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan policy remained unchanged, has reinforced trader expectations of continued gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic conflict. Beijing has prioritized political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections by engaging the opposition Kuomintang while conducting routine live-fire drills and air activity that have not escalated beyond seasonal patterns or prior large-scale exercises from late 2025. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills and incremental defense preparations, alongside reduced PLA ADIZ incursions in early 2026, reflect mutual signaling and deterrence without crossing into direct military confrontation. This combination of high-level talks, electoral focus, and calibrated military posturing underpins the 93.2% implied probability against a clash before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$3,213,005 交易量
$3,213,005 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$3,213,005 交易量
$3,213,005 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained diplomatic engagement between the United States and China, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan policy remained unchanged, has reinforced trader expectations of continued gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic conflict. Beijing has prioritized political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections by engaging the opposition Kuomintang while conducting routine live-fire drills and air activity that have not escalated beyond seasonal patterns or prior large-scale exercises from late 2025. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills and incremental defense preparations, alongside reduced PLA ADIZ incursions in early 2026, reflect mutual signaling and deterrence without crossing into direct military confrontation. This combination of high-level talks, electoral focus, and calibrated military posturing underpins the 93.2% implied probability against a clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$3,213,005结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained diplomatic engagement between the United States and China, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan policy remained unchanged, has reinforced trader expectations of continued gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic conflict. Beijing has prioritized political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections by engaging the opposition Kuomintang while conducting routine live-fire drills and air activity that have not escalated beyond seasonal patterns or prior large-scale exercises from late 2025. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills and incremental defense preparations, alongside reduced PLA ADIZ incursions in early 2026, reflect mutual signaling and deterrence without crossing into direct military confrontation. This combination of high-level talks, electoral focus, and calibrated military posturing underpins the 93.2% implied probability against a clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,213,005结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sustained diplomatic engagement between the United States and China, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan policy remained unchanged, has reinforced trader expectations of continued gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic conflict. Beijing has prioritized political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections by engaging the opposition Kuomintang while conducting routine live-fire drills and air activity that have not escalated beyond seasonal patterns or prior large-scale exercises from late 2025. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills and incremental defense preparations, alongside reduced PLA ADIZ incursions in early 2026, reflect mutual signaling and deterrence without crossing into direct military confrontation. This combination of high-level talks, electoral focus, and calibrated military posturing underpins the 93.2% implied probability against a clash before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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