Ongoing gray-zone tactics, including frequent Chinese coast guard and naval patrols plus aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ, sustain pressure on cross-strait dynamics without triggering open hostilities. Recent Xi-Trump summit discussions on Taiwan independence produced no immediate U.S. policy shift, while Taiwan's record defense budget and combat-readiness drills reinforce deterrence. Traders price in 96.2% odds for no clash before 2027 due to China's focus on incremental maritime control, U.S. alliance commitments, and economic costs of escalation. Potential disruptors include an unintended incident during patrols, shifts in U.S. arms delivery timelines, or altered PRC leadership priorities that accelerate amphibious preparations.