Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the recent Trump-Xi summit, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing favors non-military pressure over direct confrontation to advance its Taiwan policy. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to highlight the high operational risks and uncertain prospects for a successful amphibious operation before 2027, consistent with ongoing gray-zone tactics such as air incursions and maritime patrols rather than escalation. Internal challenges, including People’s Liberation Army leadership purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on expanded defense funding, further limit immediate options for major military action. While these factors underpin the strong market consensus against a clash, sudden shifts in cross-strait dynamics, miscalculations during exercises, or changes in U.S. deterrence commitments could still influence outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,792,828 交易量
$1,792,828 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,792,828 交易量
$1,792,828 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the recent Trump-Xi summit, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing favors non-military pressure over direct confrontation to advance its Taiwan policy. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to highlight the high operational risks and uncertain prospects for a successful amphibious operation before 2027, consistent with ongoing gray-zone tactics such as air incursions and maritime patrols rather than escalation. Internal challenges, including People’s Liberation Army leadership purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on expanded defense funding, further limit immediate options for major military action. While these factors underpin the strong market consensus against a clash, sudden shifts in cross-strait dynamics, miscalculations during exercises, or changes in U.S. deterrence commitments could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,792,828结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the recent Trump-Xi summit, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing favors non-military pressure over direct confrontation to advance its Taiwan policy. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to highlight the high operational risks and uncertain prospects for a successful amphibious operation before 2027, consistent with ongoing gray-zone tactics such as air incursions and maritime patrols rather than escalation. Internal challenges, including People’s Liberation Army leadership purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on expanded defense funding, further limit immediate options for major military action. While these factors underpin the strong market consensus against a clash, sudden shifts in cross-strait dynamics, miscalculations during exercises, or changes in U.S. deterrence commitments could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,792,828结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including the recent Trump-Xi summit, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing favors non-military pressure over direct confrontation to advance its Taiwan policy. U.S. intelligence assessments continue to highlight the high operational risks and uncertain prospects for a successful amphibious operation before 2027, consistent with ongoing gray-zone tactics such as air incursions and maritime patrols rather than escalation. Internal challenges, including People’s Liberation Army leadership purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on expanded defense funding, further limit immediate options for major military action. While these factors underpin the strong market consensus against a clash, sudden shifts in cross-strait dynamics, miscalculations during exercises, or changes in U.S. deterrence commitments could still influence outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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