Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability to no military clash before 2027 due to sustained but contained cross-strait coercion rather than escalation toward open conflict. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, which tested reservist mobilization, arms production relocation, and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese leadership statements. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have declined markedly in 2026 from prior peaks, while China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas remain normalized. Beijing has reframed its timeline around Taiwan’s 2028 elections and longer-term pressure, with both sides prioritizing gray-zone activities, diplomatic signaling, and defensive preparations over actions that would trigger direct confrontation in the remaining months of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$3,213,005 交易量
$3,213,005 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$3,213,005 交易量
$3,213,005 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability to no military clash before 2027 due to sustained but contained cross-strait coercion rather than escalation toward open conflict. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, which tested reservist mobilization, arms production relocation, and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese leadership statements. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have declined markedly in 2026 from prior peaks, while China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas remain normalized. Beijing has reframed its timeline around Taiwan’s 2028 elections and longer-term pressure, with both sides prioritizing gray-zone activities, diplomatic signaling, and defensive preparations over actions that would trigger direct confrontation in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$3,213,005结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability to no military clash before 2027 due to sustained but contained cross-strait coercion rather than escalation toward open conflict. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, which tested reservist mobilization, arms production relocation, and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese leadership statements. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have declined markedly in 2026 from prior peaks, while China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas remain normalized. Beijing has reframed its timeline around Taiwan’s 2028 elections and longer-term pressure, with both sides prioritizing gray-zone activities, diplomatic signaling, and defensive preparations over actions that would trigger direct confrontation in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,213,005结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability to no military clash before 2027 due to sustained but contained cross-strait coercion rather than escalation toward open conflict. Recent developments include Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, which tested reservist mobilization, arms production relocation, and supply resilience, alongside China’s July live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese leadership statements. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have declined markedly in 2026 from prior peaks, while China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas remain normalized. Beijing has reframed its timeline around Taiwan’s 2028 elections and longer-term pressure, with both sides prioritizing gray-zone activities, diplomatic signaling, and defensive preparations over actions that would trigger direct confrontation in the remaining months of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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