US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于US x China Military clash before 2027?
US x China Military clash before 2027?
$137,406 交易量
$137,406 交易量
2026-12-31
$137,406 交易量
$137,406 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$137,406结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$137,406结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing that produced commitments on trade, agriculture, and a framework for strategic stability, has reinforced trader expectations against direct military confrontation before 2027. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in early June, have highlighted China's military buildup and regional activities while prioritizing allied defense spending and deterrence measures to render potential Taiwan-related actions infeasible. Chinese responses have emphasized restraint and criticized perceived US incitement, with ongoing grey-zone pressure around Taiwan remaining below thresholds for direct US involvement. These developments, alongside mutual economic incentives and avoidance of escalation amid other global priorities, underpin the 92% implied probability for no clash.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题