High-level US-China diplomacy, including President Trump's May 13 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, has reinforced de-escalation efforts amid Taiwan Strait and South China Sea tensions, driving trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Xi reiterated Taiwan as the core issue but warned against mishandling without endorsing escalation, while discussions covered trade truces expiring November 2026 and Iran-related strains. US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike signal deterrence postures, yet economic interdependence, vast logistical barriers to invasion, and mutual nuclear risks deter direct conflict. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, markets price in sustained guardrails over provocation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$111,777 交易量
$111,777 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$111,777 交易量
$111,777 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.High-level US-China diplomacy, including President Trump's May 13 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, has reinforced de-escalation efforts amid Taiwan Strait and South China Sea tensions, driving trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Xi reiterated Taiwan as the core issue but warned against mishandling without endorsing escalation, while discussions covered trade truces expiring November 2026 and Iran-related strains. US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike signal deterrence postures, yet economic interdependence, vast logistical barriers to invasion, and mutual nuclear risks deter direct conflict. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, markets price in sustained guardrails over provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$111,777结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.High-level US-China diplomacy, including President Trump's May 13 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, has reinforced de-escalation efforts amid Taiwan Strait and South China Sea tensions, driving trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Xi reiterated Taiwan as the core issue but warned against mishandling without endorsing escalation, while discussions covered trade truces expiring November 2026 and Iran-related strains. US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike signal deterrence postures, yet economic interdependence, vast logistical barriers to invasion, and mutual nuclear risks deter direct conflict. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, markets price in sustained guardrails over provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$111,777结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...High-level US-China diplomacy, including President Trump's May 13 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, has reinforced de-escalation efforts amid Taiwan Strait and South China Sea tensions, driving trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. Xi reiterated Taiwan as the core issue but warned against mishandling without endorsing escalation, while discussions covered trade truces expiring November 2026 and Iran-related strains. US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike signal deterrence postures, yet economic interdependence, vast logistical barriers to invasion, and mutual nuclear risks deter direct conflict. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, markets price in sustained guardrails over provocation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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