US officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains unlikely before 2028, citing disruptions to People’s Liberation Army readiness from ongoing anti-corruption purges and Beijing’s interest in monitoring Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election for a potentially more accommodating government. This view aligns with the 91.5% implied probability on “No” by June 2027. Recent developments include the September 2026 Xi-Trump summit, which produced an extended trade truce without shifts in US Taiwan policy, and Xi’s National Day remarks emphasizing resolute action against independence forces while calling for peaceful cross-Strait development. Routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and naval activity around Taiwan continues amid gray-zone pressure, yet assessments note no acceleration toward full-scale amphibious operations by the 2027 capability target.