U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$187,892 交易量
$187,892 交易量
2027-06-30
是
$187,892 交易量
$187,892 交易量
2027-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
交易量
$187,892结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$187,892结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and no fixed unification timeline, anchors trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting high perceived costs of military action amid economic pressures and U.S. deterrence. Recent Trump-Xi summit talks in Beijing on May 14 highlighted Taiwan tensions but yielded trade promises without escalation signals, while routine People's Liberation Army drills and China Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen persist without invasion-scale mobilization. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's May speeches drew Beijing warnings of "separatist" risks, yet diplomatic posturing dominates over kinetic moves, underscoring traders' view of sustained gray-zone pressure over outright conflict before June 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题