Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to favor sustained gray-zone coercion over large-scale amphibious operations. Recent months have featured routine PLA aircraft incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s sovereignty statements, alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply relocation. Diplomatic engagement, including Xi Jinping’s April 2026 meeting with the opposition Kuomintang leader and partial resumption of cross-strait flights and trade, signals preference for incremental pressure and “peaceful reunification” messaging. U.S. policy signals under the current administration and Taiwan’s defense modernization further contribute to the view that major kinetic action remains unlikely within the resolution window absent a significant new trigger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
$419,407 交易量
$419,407 交易量
2027-06-30
是
9% 概率
$419,407 交易量
$419,407 交易量
2027-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to favor sustained gray-zone coercion over large-scale amphibious operations. Recent months have featured routine PLA aircraft incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s sovereignty statements, alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply relocation. Diplomatic engagement, including Xi Jinping’s April 2026 meeting with the opposition Kuomintang leader and partial resumption of cross-strait flights and trade, signals preference for incremental pressure and “peaceful reunification” messaging. U.S. policy signals under the current administration and Taiwan’s defense modernization further contribute to the view that major kinetic action remains unlikely within the resolution window absent a significant new trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
交易量
$419,407结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to favor sustained gray-zone coercion over large-scale amphibious operations. Recent months have featured routine PLA aircraft incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s sovereignty statements, alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply relocation. Diplomatic engagement, including Xi Jinping’s April 2026 meeting with the opposition Kuomintang leader and partial resumption of cross-strait flights and trade, signals preference for incremental pressure and “peaceful reunification” messaging. U.S. policy signals under the current administration and Taiwan’s defense modernization further contribute to the view that major kinetic action remains unlikely within the resolution window absent a significant new trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$419,407结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to favor sustained gray-zone coercion over large-scale amphibious operations. Recent months have featured routine PLA aircraft incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait following Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s sovereignty statements, alongside Taiwan’s August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply relocation. Diplomatic engagement, including Xi Jinping’s April 2026 meeting with the opposition Kuomintang leader and partial resumption of cross-strait flights and trade, signals preference for incremental pressure and “peaceful reunification” messaging. U.S. policy signals under the current administration and Taiwan’s defense modernization further contribute to the view that major kinetic action remains unlikely within the resolution window absent a significant new trigger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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