China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific addressed key deterrence and second-strike validation goals, with Beijing describing it as routine training. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australia-China defense talks in mid-September that raised concerns over notification and escalation risks, have reinforced regional emphasis on military transparency and de-escalation. Ongoing PLA drills and hypersonic system demonstrations continue, yet no additional high-profile ballistic missile tests into international waters have been reported since July. Traders therefore view further launches before December 31 as unlikely absent major shifts in Taiwan Strait tensions or U.S.-China signaling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
19% 概率
$10,991 交易量
$10,991 交易量
2026-12-31
是
19% 概率
$10,991 交易量
$10,991 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific addressed key deterrence and second-strike validation goals, with Beijing describing it as routine training. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australia-China defense talks in mid-September that raised concerns over notification and escalation risks, have reinforced regional emphasis on military transparency and de-escalation. Ongoing PLA drills and hypersonic system demonstrations continue, yet no additional high-profile ballistic missile tests into international waters have been reported since July. Traders therefore view further launches before December 31 as unlikely absent major shifts in Taiwan Strait tensions or U.S.-China signaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
交易量
$10,991结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific addressed key deterrence and second-strike validation goals, with Beijing describing it as routine training. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australia-China defense talks in mid-September that raised concerns over notification and escalation risks, have reinforced regional emphasis on military transparency and de-escalation. Ongoing PLA drills and hypersonic system demonstrations continue, yet no additional high-profile ballistic missile tests into international waters have been reported since July. Traders therefore view further launches before December 31 as unlikely absent major shifts in Taiwan Strait tensions or U.S.-China signaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$10,991结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETChina’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel into the South Pacific addressed key deterrence and second-strike validation goals, with Beijing describing it as routine training. Subsequent diplomatic exchanges, including Australia-China defense talks in mid-September that raised concerns over notification and escalation risks, have reinforced regional emphasis on military transparency and de-escalation. Ongoing PLA drills and hypersonic system demonstrations continue, yet no additional high-profile ballistic missile tests into international waters have been reported since July. Traders therefore view further launches before December 31 as unlikely absent major shifts in Taiwan Strait tensions or U.S.-China signaling.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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