Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—31.5% for 0.6–1.0% and 29.5% for 1.1–1.5% annual CPI—reflect uncertainty over China's inflation trajectory amid April 2026's 1.2% year-on-year CPI print, beating consensus estimates of 0.8–0.9% and lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Surging energy costs from the Iran conflict and rebounding travel demand drove the uptick, alongside producer prices hitting a 45-month high of 2.8%, but persistent housing deflation and subdued core pressures temper optimism. Consensus economist forecasts hover around 0.6–1.2% for full-year 2026, with swing factors including oil price persistence, potential stimulus measures, and May CPI data due mid-June, which could tip the balance in this skin-in-the-game contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.1 – 1.5% 44%
0.6 – 1.0% 32%
2.5%以上 8.2%
2.0-2.4% 8.0%
$39,903 交易量
$39,903 交易量
2027-01-10
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
4%
0.6 – 1.0%
32%
1.1 – 1.5%
30%
1.6–2.0%
7%
2.0-2.4%
8%
2.5%以上
8%
1.1 – 1.5% 44%
0.6 – 1.0% 32%
2.5%以上 8.2%
2.0-2.4% 8.0%
$39,903 交易量
$39,903 交易量
2027-01-10
<-1.0%
$17,461 交易量
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$2,317 交易量
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$2,534 交易量
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,821 交易量
4%
0.6 – 1.0%
$2,926 交易量
32%
1.1 – 1.5%
$3,312 交易量
30%
1.6–2.0%
$3,628 交易量
7%
2.0-2.4%
$2,400 交易量
8%
2.5%以上
$2,504 交易量
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—31.5% for 0.6–1.0% and 29.5% for 1.1–1.5% annual CPI—reflect uncertainty over China's inflation trajectory amid April 2026's 1.2% year-on-year CPI print, beating consensus estimates of 0.8–0.9% and lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Surging energy costs from the Iran conflict and rebounding travel demand drove the uptick, alongside producer prices hitting a 45-month high of 2.8%, but persistent housing deflation and subdued core pressures temper optimism. Consensus economist forecasts hover around 0.6–1.2% for full-year 2026, with swing factors including oil price persistence, potential stimulus measures, and May CPI data due mid-June, which could tip the balance in this skin-in-the-game contest.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
交易量
$39,903结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—31.5% for 0.6–1.0% and 29.5% for 1.1–1.5% annual CPI—reflect uncertainty over China's inflation trajectory amid April 2026's 1.2% year-on-year CPI print, beating consensus estimates of 0.8–0.9% and lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Surging energy costs from the Iran conflict and rebounding travel demand drove the uptick, alongside producer prices hitting a 45-month high of 2.8%, but persistent housing deflation and subdued core pressures temper optimism. Consensus economist forecasts hover around 0.6–1.2% for full-year 2026, with swing factors including oil price persistence, potential stimulus measures, and May CPI data due mid-June, which could tip the balance in this skin-in-the-game contest.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
交易量
$39,903结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—31.5% for 0.6–1.0% and 29.5% for 1.1–1.5% annual CPI—reflect uncertainty over China's inflation trajectory amid April 2026's 1.2% year-on-year CPI print, beating consensus estimates of 0.8–0.9% and lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Surging energy costs from the Iran conflict and rebounding travel demand drove the uptick, alongside producer prices hitting a 45-month high of 2.8%, but persistent housing deflation and subdued core pressures temper optimism. Consensus economist forecasts hover around 0.6–1.2% for full-year 2026, with swing factors including oil price persistence, potential stimulus measures, and May CPI data due mid-June, which could tip the balance in this skin-in-the-game contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题