The surprisingly weak July 2026 employment report, released August 7 and showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of an 83,000 gain plus sizable downward revisions to prior months, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate. With the rate ticking down to 4.1% amid falling labor force participation, markets now price a tight cluster around 4.1–4.3% as the most likely outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the slowdown signals a temporary dip or sustained cooling. Recent stability in wage growth and subdued hiring rates reinforce the range, while upcoming August data releases and any further Fed communications on labor conditions represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities before the September report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.1% 32%
4.2% 27%
4.3% 26%
4.0% 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
27%
4.3%
26%
4.4%
6%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
3%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 27%
4.3% 26%
4.0% 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
≤3.8%
$110 交易量
1%
3.9%
$112 交易量
2%
4.0%
$554 交易量
13%
4.1%
$2,349 交易量
32%
4.2%
$1,030 交易量
27%
4.3%
$554 交易量
26%
4.4%
$133 交易量
6%
4.5%
$132 交易量
3%
≥4.6%
$112 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The surprisingly weak July 2026 employment report, released August 7 and showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of an 83,000 gain plus sizable downward revisions to prior months, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate. With the rate ticking down to 4.1% amid falling labor force participation, markets now price a tight cluster around 4.1–4.3% as the most likely outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the slowdown signals a temporary dip or sustained cooling. Recent stability in wage growth and subdued hiring rates reinforce the range, while upcoming August data releases and any further Fed communications on labor conditions represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities before the September report.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
交易量
$5,086结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The surprisingly weak July 2026 employment report, released August 7 and showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of an 83,000 gain plus sizable downward revisions to prior months, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate. With the rate ticking down to 4.1% amid falling labor force participation, markets now price a tight cluster around 4.1–4.3% as the most likely outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the slowdown signals a temporary dip or sustained cooling. Recent stability in wage growth and subdued hiring rates reinforce the range, while upcoming August data releases and any further Fed communications on labor conditions represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities before the September report.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$5,086结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETThe surprisingly weak July 2026 employment report, released August 7 and showing a 23,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls against expectations of an 83,000 gain plus sizable downward revisions to prior months, has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate. With the rate ticking down to 4.1% amid falling labor force participation, markets now price a tight cluster around 4.1–4.3% as the most likely outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether the slowdown signals a temporary dip or sustained cooling. Recent stability in wage growth and subdued hiring rates reinforce the range, while upcoming August data releases and any further Fed communications on labor conditions represent key swing factors that could shift probabilities before the September report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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