The U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience in the April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000—surpassing consensus estimates of around 60,000—despite a slight uptick in the unemployed to 7.4 million. This stability aligns with the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections, where the median FOMC participant forecasts a modest rise to 4.4% by Q4 2026, reflecting balanced risks amid cooling job growth and persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in low-teens for significant rises above 5%, prioritizing upcoming May nonfarm payrolls (June 6 release) and the June FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate rate cut expectations and peak unemployment path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$385,594 交易量
2026-01-10
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
4%
$385,594 交易量
5.0%
$101,388 交易量
28%
5.5%
$186,285 交易量
14%
6.0%
$52,079 交易量
13%
7.0%
$20,705 交易量
10%
10.0%
$25,136 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience in the April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000—surpassing consensus estimates of around 60,000—despite a slight uptick in the unemployed to 7.4 million. This stability aligns with the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections, where the median FOMC participant forecasts a modest rise to 4.4% by Q4 2026, reflecting balanced risks amid cooling job growth and persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in low-teens for significant rises above 5%, prioritizing upcoming May nonfarm payrolls (June 6 release) and the June FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate rate cut expectations and peak unemployment path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$385,594结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience in the April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000—surpassing consensus estimates of around 60,000—despite a slight uptick in the unemployed to 7.4 million. This stability aligns with the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections, where the median FOMC participant forecasts a modest rise to 4.4% by Q4 2026, reflecting balanced risks amid cooling job growth and persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in low-teens for significant rises above 5%, prioritizing upcoming May nonfarm payrolls (June 6 release) and the June FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate rate cut expectations and peak unemployment path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$385,594结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience in the April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000—surpassing consensus estimates of around 60,000—despite a slight uptick in the unemployed to 7.4 million. This stability aligns with the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections, where the median FOMC participant forecasts a modest rise to 4.4% by Q4 2026, reflecting balanced risks amid cooling job growth and persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical tensions. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices in low-teens for significant rises above 5%, prioritizing upcoming May nonfarm payrolls (June 6 release) and the June FOMC meeting, where dot plot updates could recalibrate rate cut expectations and peak unemployment path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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