Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard—such as blocking resupplies at Second Thomas Shoal and patrols near Scarborough Shoal—without escalation to PLA naval or air force engagement. Recent Balikatan 2026 exercises, the largest U.S.-Philippines drills involving allies like Japan and Australia, concluded in late April without direct confrontation despite China's Liaoning carrier group counter-drills. Philippine accusations of Chinese cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal in early April prompted diplomatic protests but no kinetic response, underscoring mutual deterrence via the U.S. alliance and provisional resupply arrangements amid ongoing South China Sea tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$355,506 交易量
$355,506 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$355,506 交易量
$355,506 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard—such as blocking resupplies at Second Thomas Shoal and patrols near Scarborough Shoal—without escalation to PLA naval or air force engagement. Recent Balikatan 2026 exercises, the largest U.S.-Philippines drills involving allies like Japan and Australia, concluded in late April without direct confrontation despite China's Liaoning carrier group counter-drills. Philippine accusations of Chinese cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal in early April prompted diplomatic protests but no kinetic response, underscoring mutual deterrence via the U.S. alliance and provisional resupply arrangements amid ongoing South China Sea tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$355,506结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard—such as blocking resupplies at Second Thomas Shoal and patrols near Scarborough Shoal—without escalation to PLA naval or air force engagement. Recent Balikatan 2026 exercises, the largest U.S.-Philippines drills involving allies like Japan and Australia, concluded in late April without direct confrontation despite China's Liaoning carrier group counter-drills. Philippine accusations of Chinese cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal in early April prompted diplomatic protests but no kinetic response, underscoring mutual deterrence via the U.S. alliance and provisional resupply arrangements amid ongoing South China Sea tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$356,126结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard—such as blocking resupplies at Second Thomas Shoal and patrols near Scarborough Shoal—without escalation to PLA naval or air force engagement. Recent Balikatan 2026 exercises, the largest U.S.-Philippines drills involving allies like Japan and Australia, concluded in late April without direct confrontation despite China's Liaoning carrier group counter-drills. Philippine accusations of Chinese cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal in early April prompted diplomatic protests but no kinetic response, underscoring mutual deterrence via the U.S. alliance and provisional resupply arrangements amid ongoing South China Sea tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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