The conditional January 2026 threat of 100% tariffs if Canada struck a trade deal with China has not materialized, as Ottawa has ruled out such an agreement and no triggering developments have emerged. Current U.S. measures on Canadian goods remain far lower, with USMCA-compliant exports largely exempt, Section 232 rates on steel, aluminum, and copper adjusted to 15% or below on many derivatives effective June 8, and proposed Section 301 duties at 10-12.5% over forced-labor findings still under comment. Bilateral talks on trade, borders, and the upcoming USMCA review continue without escalation signals ahead of the June 30 deadline. A sudden executive action tied to new diplomatic or security developments could still alter the outcome before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$86,294 交易量
$86,294 交易量
2026-06-30
$86,294 交易量
$86,294 交易量
2026-06-30
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.The conditional January 2026 threat of 100% tariffs if Canada struck a trade deal with China has not materialized, as Ottawa has ruled out such an agreement and no triggering developments have emerged. Current U.S. measures on Canadian goods remain far lower, with USMCA-compliant exports largely exempt, Section 232 rates on steel, aluminum, and copper adjusted to 15% or below on many derivatives effective June 8, and proposed Section 301 duties at 10-12.5% over forced-labor findings still under comment. Bilateral talks on trade, borders, and the upcoming USMCA review continue without escalation signals ahead of the June 30 deadline. A sudden executive action tied to new diplomatic or security developments could still alter the outcome before resolution.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
交易量
$86,294结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.The conditional January 2026 threat of 100% tariffs if Canada struck a trade deal with China has not materialized, as Ottawa has ruled out such an agreement and no triggering developments have emerged. Current U.S. measures on Canadian goods remain far lower, with USMCA-compliant exports largely exempt, Section 232 rates on steel, aluminum, and copper adjusted to 15% or below on many derivatives effective June 8, and proposed Section 301 duties at 10-12.5% over forced-labor findings still under comment. Bilateral talks on trade, borders, and the upcoming USMCA review continue without escalation signals ahead of the June 30 deadline. A sudden executive action tied to new diplomatic or security developments could still alter the outcome before resolution.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
交易量
$86,294结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The conditional January 2026 threat of 100% tariffs if Canada struck a trade deal with China has not materialized, as Ottawa has ruled out such an agreement and no triggering developments have emerged. Current U.S. measures on Canadian goods remain far lower, with USMCA-compliant exports largely exempt, Section 232 rates on steel, aluminum, and copper adjusted to 15% or below on many derivatives effective June 8, and proposed Section 301 duties at 10-12.5% over forced-labor findings still under comment. Bilateral talks on trade, borders, and the upcoming USMCA review continue without escalation signals ahead of the June 30 deadline. A sudden executive action tied to new diplomatic or security developments could still alter the outcome before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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