China’s 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range according to trader consensus, reflecting policy measures aimed at stabilizing expansion near the government’s target amid mixed domestic conditions. Recent steps include targeted mortgage subsidies, expanded central bank lending for infrastructure and technology, and a September manufacturing PMI rebound to 50.1, which ended two months of contraction and signals modest momentum from fiscal and credit support. Strong export performance, particularly in high-tech and equipment sectors, continues to offset weak consumption, property investment declines, and subdued retail sales. Major forecasts from institutions such as the IMF, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.3% and 4.8%, supported by the 15th Five-Year Plan’s focus on manufacturing upgrades and selective demand measures. A sharper global trade slowdown or deeper domestic demand slump could push outcomes lower, while larger-scale stimulus might lift growth above 5%.