China’s official GDP growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026, announced at the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations in the leading 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by robust exports, manufacturing investment, and front-loaded fiscal stimulus amid infrastructure projects. Analyst projections from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Vanguard cluster between 4.7% and 4.8%, reflecting continued external demand strength while highlighting headwinds from subdued domestic consumption, property sector pressures, and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. These factors sustain the current market distribution, with the narrower 5.0–6.0% band capturing residual upside from sustained export momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 29.8%
6.0-7.0% 1.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$535,150 交易量
$535,150 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
69%
5.0–6.0%
30%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 29.8%
6.0-7.0% 1.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$535,150 交易量
$535,150 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
$41,842 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$41,020 交易量
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$21,426 交易量
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$44,081 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$136,640 交易量
69%
5.0–6.0%
$52,034 交易量
30%
6.0-7.0%
$48,639 交易量
2%
7.0–8.0%
$44,890 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$20,608 交易量
<1%
9.0%及以上
$83,968 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official GDP growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026, announced at the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations in the leading 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by robust exports, manufacturing investment, and front-loaded fiscal stimulus amid infrastructure projects. Analyst projections from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Vanguard cluster between 4.7% and 4.8%, reflecting continued external demand strength while highlighting headwinds from subdued domestic consumption, property sector pressures, and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. These factors sustain the current market distribution, with the narrower 5.0–6.0% band capturing residual upside from sustained export momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$535,150结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official GDP growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026, announced at the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations in the leading 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by robust exports, manufacturing investment, and front-loaded fiscal stimulus amid infrastructure projects. Analyst projections from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Vanguard cluster between 4.7% and 4.8%, reflecting continued external demand strength while highlighting headwinds from subdued domestic consumption, property sector pressures, and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. These factors sustain the current market distribution, with the narrower 5.0–6.0% band capturing residual upside from sustained export momentum.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$535,150结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official GDP growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026, announced at the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations in the leading 4.0–5.0% outcome. First-quarter data released in April showed a 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by robust exports, manufacturing investment, and front-loaded fiscal stimulus amid infrastructure projects. Analyst projections from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Vanguard cluster between 4.7% and 4.8%, reflecting continued external demand strength while highlighting headwinds from subdued domestic consumption, property sector pressures, and elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. These factors sustain the current market distribution, with the narrower 5.0–6.0% band capturing residual upside from sustained export momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题