Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting Q1's 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow's 3.7% Q2 nowcast, signaling potential first-half strength from resilient consumer spending and modest April job gains of 115,000 amid 4.3% unemployment. However, fragmented odds across bins—1.5–2.0% at 16.9% and sub-0.5% at 16.2%—highlight uncertainty from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, raising risks of sustained Federal Reserve policy restraint per March dot plot's 3.4% end-2026 fed funds median. Consensus forecasts near 2.3% cluster around 2.0–2.5%, with Q2 GDP advance and May jobs data as key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于>2.5% 46%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
低于0.5% 16.1%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$27,904 交易量
$27,904 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
16%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
13%
>2.5%
46%
>2.5% 46%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
低于0.5% 16.1%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$27,904 交易量
$27,904 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
$3,879 交易量
16%
0.5–1.0%
$15,268 交易量
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 交易量
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,472 交易量
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,690 交易量
13%
>2.5%
$4,061 交易量
46%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting Q1's 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow's 3.7% Q2 nowcast, signaling potential first-half strength from resilient consumer spending and modest April job gains of 115,000 amid 4.3% unemployment. However, fragmented odds across bins—1.5–2.0% at 16.9% and sub-0.5% at 16.2%—highlight uncertainty from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, raising risks of sustained Federal Reserve policy restraint per March dot plot's 3.4% end-2026 fed funds median. Consensus forecasts near 2.3% cluster around 2.0–2.5%, with Q2 GDP advance and May jobs data as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$27,904结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting Q1's 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow's 3.7% Q2 nowcast, signaling potential first-half strength from resilient consumer spending and modest April job gains of 115,000 amid 4.3% unemployment. However, fragmented odds across bins—1.5–2.0% at 16.9% and sub-0.5% at 16.2%—highlight uncertainty from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, raising risks of sustained Federal Reserve policy restraint per March dot plot's 3.4% end-2026 fed funds median. Consensus forecasts near 2.3% cluster around 2.0–2.5%, with Q2 GDP advance and May jobs data as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$27,904结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for 2026 real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting Q1's 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow's 3.7% Q2 nowcast, signaling potential first-half strength from resilient consumer spending and modest April job gains of 115,000 amid 4.3% unemployment. However, fragmented odds across bins—1.5–2.0% at 16.9% and sub-0.5% at 16.2%—highlight uncertainty from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, raising risks of sustained Federal Reserve policy restraint per March dot plot's 3.4% end-2026 fed funds median. Consensus forecasts near 2.3% cluster around 2.0–2.5%, with Q2 GDP advance and May jobs data as key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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