Recent U.S. GDP data show Q1 growth at 2.5% and Q2 at a revised 2.2% annualized rate, supported by resilient consumer spending and surging business investment in AI-related equipment and data centers. FOMC medians project 2.3% for 2026 overall, while private forecasts range from 2.1% to 2.7%, reflecting solid underlying demand offset by sticky inflation near 3% and potential drags from tariffs or energy prices. With the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% bands nearly tied in trader positioning, outcomes hinge on Q3 results due later this month, labor market trends, and whether AI-driven capex sustains momentum above trend or yields to tighter financial conditions. Market-implied odds capture this balance of resilient growth versus policy and external risks.