Robust U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis releases show Q2 2026 growth at 2.2% annualized, with Q3 nowcasts from the Atlanta Fed near 5% and private estimates around 3%, driven by resilient consumer spending and AI-related business investment. The Federal Reserve's September projections, OECD, and bank economists all forecast full-year expansion of 2.2–2.7%, consistent with positive quarterly readings through mid-year. While tail risks such as Middle East energy shocks or an abrupt correction in AI equity valuations could weigh on activity, current momentum and broad consensus make contraction for the full year highly improbable.