Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis points ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 10 meeting, with an 83% implied probability, driven by Eurozone annual inflation surging to 3.0% in April 2026—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a +10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war's supply disruptions. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hikes ahead, corroborated by a May 13 Reuters poll forecasting June action and at least one more amid stagflation risks from 0.1% Q1 GDP growth. No-change odds at 16.5% reflect slim hopes for energy relief, while larger moves remain negligible; watch May CPI flash on May 29 for potential shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息25个基点 83%
No change 16.4%
加息50个基点及以上 <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$255,055 交易量
$255,055 交易量
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
16%
加息25个基点
83%
加息50个基点及以上
1%
加息25个基点 83%
No change 16.4%
加息50个基点及以上 <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$255,055 交易量
$255,055 交易量
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
$52,380 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$42,202 交易量
<1%
No change
$50,574 交易量
16%
加息25个基点
$60,354 交易量
83%
加息50个基点及以上
$49,544 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis points ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 10 meeting, with an 83% implied probability, driven by Eurozone annual inflation surging to 3.0% in April 2026—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a +10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war's supply disruptions. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hikes ahead, corroborated by a May 13 Reuters poll forecasting June action and at least one more amid stagflation risks from 0.1% Q1 GDP growth. No-change odds at 16.5% reflect slim hopes for energy relief, while larger moves remain negligible; watch May CPI flash on May 29 for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$255,055结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis points ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 10 meeting, with an 83% implied probability, driven by Eurozone annual inflation surging to 3.0% in April 2026—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a +10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war's supply disruptions. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hikes ahead, corroborated by a May 13 Reuters poll forecasting June action and at least one more amid stagflation risks from 0.1% Q1 GDP growth. No-change odds at 16.5% reflect slim hopes for energy relief, while larger moves remain negligible; watch May CPI flash on May 29 for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
交易量
$255,055结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis points ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 10 meeting, with an 83% implied probability, driven by Eurozone annual inflation surging to 3.0% in April 2026—up from 2.6% in March—fueled by a +10.9% energy price spike amid the Iran war's supply disruptions. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hikes ahead, corroborated by a May 13 Reuters poll forecasting June action and at least one more amid stagflation risks from 0.1% Q1 GDP growth. No-change odds at 16.5% reflect slim hopes for energy relief, while larger moves remain negligible; watch May CPI flash on May 29 for potential shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题