Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the ECB's July 2026 interest rate decision, with no-change at 51.5% edging out a 25 basis point increase at 47.5%, driven by conflicting Eurozone data. April HICP inflation surged to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting hawkish revisions from firms like Morgan Stanley and the IMF forecasting up to 50 basis points of hikes in 2026. Countering this, Q1 GDP expanded a meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing estimates, while the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters downgraded 2026 growth projections. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks stressed "full optionality" after holding the deposit rate at 2.00%, with upside inflation and downside growth risks balanced. Key differentiators ahead include May CPI release and the June policy meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No change 53%
25 bps Increase 49%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
最新
最新
2026-07-23
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
53%
25 bps Increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 53%
25 bps Increase 49%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
最新
最新
2026-07-23
50+ bps decrease
$174 交易量
5%
25 bps decrease
$90 交易量
3%
No change
$32 交易量
53%
25 bps Increase
$67 交易量
44%
50+ bps increase
$121 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the ECB's July 2026 interest rate decision, with no-change at 51.5% edging out a 25 basis point increase at 47.5%, driven by conflicting Eurozone data. April HICP inflation surged to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting hawkish revisions from firms like Morgan Stanley and the IMF forecasting up to 50 basis points of hikes in 2026. Countering this, Q1 GDP expanded a meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing estimates, while the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters downgraded 2026 growth projections. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks stressed "full optionality" after holding the deposit rate at 2.00%, with upside inflation and downside growth risks balanced. Key differentiators ahead include May CPI release and the June policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
交易量
$484结束日期
2026-07-23市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the ECB's July 2026 interest rate decision, with no-change at 51.5% edging out a 25 basis point increase at 47.5%, driven by conflicting Eurozone data. April HICP inflation surged to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting hawkish revisions from firms like Morgan Stanley and the IMF forecasting up to 50 basis points of hikes in 2026. Countering this, Q1 GDP expanded a meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing estimates, while the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters downgraded 2026 growth projections. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks stressed "full optionality" after holding the deposit rate at 2.00%, with upside inflation and downside growth risks balanced. Key differentiators ahead include May CPI release and the June policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$484结束日期
2026-07-23市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the ECB's July 2026 interest rate decision, with no-change at 51.5% edging out a 25 basis point increase at 47.5%, driven by conflicting Eurozone data. April HICP inflation surged to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, prompting hawkish revisions from firms like Morgan Stanley and the IMF forecasting up to 50 basis points of hikes in 2026. Countering this, Q1 GDP expanded a meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing estimates, while the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters downgraded 2026 growth projections. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks stressed "full optionality" after holding the deposit rate at 2.00%, with upside inflation and downside growth risks balanced. Key differentiators ahead include May CPI release and the June policy meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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