Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026, anchored by first-quarter 2026 GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized pace—a rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% reading—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending. The labor market has held steady, with the unemployment rate near 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding roughly 115,000 jobs in April, avoiding any Sahm Rule breach. Easing geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have tempered oil-price pressures, supporting a Federal Reserve that has held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while core inflation moderates near 2.6–2.8%. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision and upcoming monthly employment and inflation releases that will test whether above-trend growth can persist through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,456,650 交易量
$1,456,650 交易量
2027-01-31
是
$1,456,650 交易量
$1,456,650 交易量
2027-01-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026, anchored by first-quarter 2026 GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized pace—a rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% reading—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending. The labor market has held steady, with the unemployment rate near 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding roughly 115,000 jobs in April, avoiding any Sahm Rule breach. Easing geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have tempered oil-price pressures, supporting a Federal Reserve that has held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while core inflation moderates near 2.6–2.8%. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision and upcoming monthly employment and inflation releases that will test whether above-trend growth can persist through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$1,456,650结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026, anchored by first-quarter 2026 GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized pace—a rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% reading—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending. The labor market has held steady, with the unemployment rate near 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding roughly 115,000 jobs in April, avoiding any Sahm Rule breach. Easing geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have tempered oil-price pressures, supporting a Federal Reserve that has held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while core inflation moderates near 2.6–2.8%. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision and upcoming monthly employment and inflation releases that will test whether above-trend growth can persist through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
交易量
$1,456,650结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026, anchored by first-quarter 2026 GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized pace—a rebound from the prior quarter’s 0.5% reading—driven by surging business fixed investment in AI infrastructure and resilient consumer spending. The labor market has held steady, with the unemployment rate near 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding roughly 115,000 jobs in April, avoiding any Sahm Rule breach. Easing geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have tempered oil-price pressures, supporting a Federal Reserve that has held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while core inflation moderates near 2.6–2.8%. Key near-term catalysts include the June FOMC decision and upcoming monthly employment and inflation releases that will test whether above-trend growth can persist through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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