Strong US economic expansion through November 2026, backed by resilient consumer spending, solid labor market readings, and GDP growth above consensus forecasts, has produced the 97.7% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. Traders price in continued expansion even with the Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive policy stance, as inflation metrics have moderated without triggering broad contraction. Recent nonfarm payrolls and retail sales releases have reinforced this base case. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp equity-market correction, or an unexpected fiscal shock that weakens demand in the final quarter of 2026.