The recent May 5 decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35 percent has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the June 16 meeting. Elevated Q1 2026 CPI readings and oil price pressures from Middle East tensions prompted the hike and informed the RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy, which now projects trimmed mean inflation peaking before easing toward the 2.5 percent target by 2028 under an assumed 60 basis point policy tightening path. Market-implied odds of 81.5 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance and the modest 13-17 percent probability priced in ASX futures, while the 24 percent chance of an increase captures residual upside risks from persistent capacity pressures. Upcoming Q2 CPI and labor market releases will provide the next key inputs ahead of the June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 81%
上调 22%
下调 <1%
$25,462 交易量
$25,462 交易量
2026-06-16
下调
<1%
无变化
81%
上调
22%
无变化 81%
上调 22%
下调 <1%
$25,462 交易量
$25,462 交易量
2026-06-16
下调
$7,827 交易量
<1%
无变化
$8,790 交易量
81%
上调
$8,845 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The recent May 5 decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35 percent has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the June 16 meeting. Elevated Q1 2026 CPI readings and oil price pressures from Middle East tensions prompted the hike and informed the RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy, which now projects trimmed mean inflation peaking before easing toward the 2.5 percent target by 2028 under an assumed 60 basis point policy tightening path. Market-implied odds of 81.5 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance and the modest 13-17 percent probability priced in ASX futures, while the 24 percent chance of an increase captures residual upside risks from persistent capacity pressures. Upcoming Q2 CPI and labor market releases will provide the next key inputs ahead of the June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
交易量
$25,462结束日期
2026-06-16市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The recent May 5 decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35 percent has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the June 16 meeting. Elevated Q1 2026 CPI readings and oil price pressures from Middle East tensions prompted the hike and informed the RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy, which now projects trimmed mean inflation peaking before easing toward the 2.5 percent target by 2028 under an assumed 60 basis point policy tightening path. Market-implied odds of 81.5 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance and the modest 13-17 percent probability priced in ASX futures, while the 24 percent chance of an increase captures residual upside risks from persistent capacity pressures. Upcoming Q2 CPI and labor market releases will provide the next key inputs ahead of the June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
交易量
$25,462结束日期
2026-06-16市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The recent May 5 decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35 percent has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the June 16 meeting. Elevated Q1 2026 CPI readings and oil price pressures from Middle East tensions prompted the hike and informed the RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy, which now projects trimmed mean inflation peaking before easing toward the 2.5 percent target by 2028 under an assumed 60 basis point policy tightening path. Market-implied odds of 81.5 percent for no change reflect this data-dependent stance and the modest 13-17 percent probability priced in ASX futures, while the 24 percent chance of an increase captures residual upside risks from persistent capacity pressures. Upcoming Q2 CPI and labor market releases will provide the next key inputs ahead of the June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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