Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP data showing 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year expansion, alongside consensus forecasts clustered at 0.8–0.9% for the full year, underpin the 78.3% market-implied probability for 0–1.0% annual growth. Energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments have elevated ECB staff projections for 2026 inflation to around 3.0%, prompting a June rate hike and subsequent holds at the deposit facility rate of 2.25%. This restrictive stance, combined with downward revisions from the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard, reflects downside risks to domestic demand and trade that limit upside scenarios. Markets price limited odds for outcomes above 2.0% given resilient but subdued labor markets and absent strong fiscal offsets, while contraction risks remain contained at 3.2%. Key upcoming data releases and ECB communications through year-end will influence any shifts in these aggregated trader probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-1.0% 79.2%
1.0-2.0% 15%
4.0-5.0% 4.7%
低于0% 4.0%
$30,375 交易量
$30,375 交易量
2027-01-31
低于0%
4%
0-1.0%
79%
1.0-2.0%
15%
2.0-3.0%
1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
5%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%及以上
<1%
0-1.0% 79.2%
1.0-2.0% 15%
4.0-5.0% 4.7%
低于0% 4.0%
$30,375 交易量
$30,375 交易量
2027-01-31
低于0%
$1,672 交易量
4%
0-1.0%
$11,512 交易量
79%
1.0-2.0%
$7,151 交易量
15%
2.0-3.0%
$1,180 交易量
1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,096 交易量
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,203 交易量
5%
5.0-6.0%
$1,185 交易量
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,648 交易量
1%
7.0%及以上
$1,728 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP data showing 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year expansion, alongside consensus forecasts clustered at 0.8–0.9% for the full year, underpin the 78.3% market-implied probability for 0–1.0% annual growth. Energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments have elevated ECB staff projections for 2026 inflation to around 3.0%, prompting a June rate hike and subsequent holds at the deposit facility rate of 2.25%. This restrictive stance, combined with downward revisions from the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard, reflects downside risks to domestic demand and trade that limit upside scenarios. Markets price limited odds for outcomes above 2.0% given resilient but subdued labor markets and absent strong fiscal offsets, while contraction risks remain contained at 3.2%. Key upcoming data releases and ECB communications through year-end will influence any shifts in these aggregated trader probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$30,375结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP data showing 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year expansion, alongside consensus forecasts clustered at 0.8–0.9% for the full year, underpin the 78.3% market-implied probability for 0–1.0% annual growth. Energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments have elevated ECB staff projections for 2026 inflation to around 3.0%, prompting a June rate hike and subsequent holds at the deposit facility rate of 2.25%. This restrictive stance, combined with downward revisions from the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard, reflects downside risks to domestic demand and trade that limit upside scenarios. Markets price limited odds for outcomes above 2.0% given resilient but subdued labor markets and absent strong fiscal offsets, while contraction risks remain contained at 3.2%. Key upcoming data releases and ECB communications through year-end will influence any shifts in these aggregated trader probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$30,375结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP data showing 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year expansion, alongside consensus forecasts clustered at 0.8–0.9% for the full year, underpin the 78.3% market-implied probability for 0–1.0% annual growth. Energy price shocks tied to Middle East developments have elevated ECB staff projections for 2026 inflation to around 3.0%, prompting a June rate hike and subsequent holds at the deposit facility rate of 2.25%. This restrictive stance, combined with downward revisions from the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard, reflects downside risks to domestic demand and trade that limit upside scenarios. Markets price limited odds for outcomes above 2.0% given resilient but subdued labor markets and absent strong fiscal offsets, while contraction risks remain contained at 3.2%. Key upcoming data releases and ECB communications through year-end will influence any shifts in these aggregated trader probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题