Recent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank place 2026 global GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.1% range, with the latest IMF update at 3.0%, reflecting persistent downside pressures from the Middle East conflict elevating energy prices and inflation while AI-related investment and technology demand provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around ≤2.9% and 3.0% capture this balance, as traders weigh elevated geopolitical and commodity risks against resilient labor markets and selective productivity gains. Key swing factors include the conflict's duration, potential further trade fragmentation, and whether AI-driven capital spending accelerates enough to lift the base case above recent downward revisions seen in World Bank and UN projections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于≤2.9% 30.8%
3.0% 28.0%
3.1% 15.6%
3.2% 8.7%
$29,461 交易量
$29,461 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
31%
3.0%
28%
3.1%
16%
3.2%
9%
3.3%
7%
3.4%
5%
3.5%
3%
3.6%
4%
3.7%以上
1%
≤2.9% 30.8%
3.0% 28.0%
3.1% 15.6%
3.2% 8.7%
$29,461 交易量
$29,461 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
$5,409 交易量
31%
3.0%
$4,888 交易量
28%
3.1%
$2,797 交易量
16%
3.2%
$2,288 交易量
9%
3.3%
$3,997 交易量
7%
3.4%
$4,544 交易量
5%
3.5%
$3,581 交易量
3%
3.6%
$904 交易量
4%
3.7%以上
$1,052 交易量
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank place 2026 global GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.1% range, with the latest IMF update at 3.0%, reflecting persistent downside pressures from the Middle East conflict elevating energy prices and inflation while AI-related investment and technology demand provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around ≤2.9% and 3.0% capture this balance, as traders weigh elevated geopolitical and commodity risks against resilient labor markets and selective productivity gains. Key swing factors include the conflict's duration, potential further trade fragmentation, and whether AI-driven capital spending accelerates enough to lift the base case above recent downward revisions seen in World Bank and UN projections.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$29,461结束日期
2027-01-15市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank place 2026 global GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.1% range, with the latest IMF update at 3.0%, reflecting persistent downside pressures from the Middle East conflict elevating energy prices and inflation while AI-related investment and technology demand provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around ≤2.9% and 3.0% capture this balance, as traders weigh elevated geopolitical and commodity risks against resilient labor markets and selective productivity gains. Key swing factors include the conflict's duration, potential further trade fragmentation, and whether AI-driven capital spending accelerates enough to lift the base case above recent downward revisions seen in World Bank and UN projections.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$29,461结束日期
2027-01-15市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank place 2026 global GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.1% range, with the latest IMF update at 3.0%, reflecting persistent downside pressures from the Middle East conflict elevating energy prices and inflation while AI-related investment and technology demand provide partial offsets. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around ≤2.9% and 3.0% capture this balance, as traders weigh elevated geopolitical and commodity risks against resilient labor markets and selective productivity gains. Key swing factors include the conflict's duration, potential further trade fragmentation, and whether AI-driven capital spending accelerates enough to lift the base case above recent downward revisions seen in World Bank and UN projections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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