Recent UK GDP data and forecaster updates have reinforced expectations for modest 2026 expansion near 1%, aligning with the 67.8% market-implied probability for the 1-2% range. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, while consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, OBR, and EY cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, citing elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, higher inflation averaging around 3.2%, and softer business surveys as key drags. NIESR stands slightly higher at 1.4%. The 24.5% odds on 0-1% reflect downside risks from tighter financial conditions and labor market softening, while sub-5% probabilities for outcomes above 2% or below zero capture limited scope for acceleration or outright contraction given current momentum. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of upcoming quarterly releases and Bank of England communications.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1-2% 67.8%
0-1% 25%
<0 4.9%
2-3% 4.3%
$72,656 交易量
$72,656 交易量
2027-02-12
<0
5%
0-1%
25%
1-2%
68%
2-3%
4%
3-4%
3%
4-5%
<1%
5%及以上
<1%
1-2% 67.8%
0-1% 25%
<0 4.9%
2-3% 4.3%
$72,656 交易量
$72,656 交易量
2027-02-12
<0
$11,068 交易量
5%
0-1%
$18,621 交易量
25%
1-2%
$23,822 交易量
68%
2-3%
$4,159 交易量
4%
3-4%
$3,146 交易量
3%
4-5%
$8,288 交易量
<1%
5%及以上
$3,552 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK GDP data and forecaster updates have reinforced expectations for modest 2026 expansion near 1%, aligning with the 67.8% market-implied probability for the 1-2% range. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, while consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, OBR, and EY cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, citing elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, higher inflation averaging around 3.2%, and softer business surveys as key drags. NIESR stands slightly higher at 1.4%. The 24.5% odds on 0-1% reflect downside risks from tighter financial conditions and labor market softening, while sub-5% probabilities for outcomes above 2% or below zero capture limited scope for acceleration or outright contraction given current momentum. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of upcoming quarterly releases and Bank of England communications.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$72,656结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK GDP data and forecaster updates have reinforced expectations for modest 2026 expansion near 1%, aligning with the 67.8% market-implied probability for the 1-2% range. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, while consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, OBR, and EY cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, citing elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, higher inflation averaging around 3.2%, and softer business surveys as key drags. NIESR stands slightly higher at 1.4%. The 24.5% odds on 0-1% reflect downside risks from tighter financial conditions and labor market softening, while sub-5% probabilities for outcomes above 2% or below zero capture limited scope for acceleration or outright contraction given current momentum. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of upcoming quarterly releases and Bank of England communications.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$72,656结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK GDP data and forecaster updates have reinforced expectations for modest 2026 expansion near 1%, aligning with the 67.8% market-implied probability for the 1-2% range. Official figures showed 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 followed by 0.4% in Q2, while consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, OBR, and EY cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, citing elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, higher inflation averaging around 3.2%, and softer business surveys as key drags. NIESR stands slightly higher at 1.4%. The 24.5% odds on 0-1% reflect downside risks from tighter financial conditions and labor market softening, while sub-5% probabilities for outcomes above 2% or below zero capture limited scope for acceleration or outright contraction given current momentum. Traders are pricing in these dynamics ahead of upcoming quarterly releases and Bank of England communications.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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