Recent UK GDP data and consensus forecasts position 1-2% annual growth as the dominant market-implied outcome for 2026, with official and independent projections clustered around 1.0-1.1%. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV assessment highlight the primary drag from elevated energy prices following the Middle East conflict, which has eroded real household incomes and weighed on consumption alongside subdued business confidence and tight financial conditions. Quarterly expansion slowed to 0.4% in Q2 after 0.6% in Q1, while the Treasury’s August survey of forecasters averaged 1.1% for the full year. Market-implied odds reflect these headwinds and the limited scope for stronger momentum absent faster disinflation or policy easing. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation and GDP releases alongside the Bank of England’s policy path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1-2% 83.0%
0-1% 10%
<0 6.5%
3-4% 1.7%
$78,756 交易量
$78,756 交易量
2027-02-11
<0
6%
0-1%
10%
1-2%
83%
2-3%
<1%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%及以上
<1%
1-2% 83.0%
0-1% 10%
<0 6.5%
3-4% 1.7%
$78,756 交易量
$78,756 交易量
2027-02-11
<0
$11,275 交易量
6%
0-1%
$19,618 交易量
10%
1-2%
$27,883 交易量
83%
2-3%
$4,384 交易量
<1%
3-4%
$3,332 交易量
2%
4-5%
$8,513 交易量
<1%
5%及以上
$3,749 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK GDP data and consensus forecasts position 1-2% annual growth as the dominant market-implied outcome for 2026, with official and independent projections clustered around 1.0-1.1%. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV assessment highlight the primary drag from elevated energy prices following the Middle East conflict, which has eroded real household incomes and weighed on consumption alongside subdued business confidence and tight financial conditions. Quarterly expansion slowed to 0.4% in Q2 after 0.6% in Q1, while the Treasury’s August survey of forecasters averaged 1.1% for the full year. Market-implied odds reflect these headwinds and the limited scope for stronger momentum absent faster disinflation or policy easing. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation and GDP releases alongside the Bank of England’s policy path.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$78,756结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK GDP data and consensus forecasts position 1-2% annual growth as the dominant market-implied outcome for 2026, with official and independent projections clustered around 1.0-1.1%. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV assessment highlight the primary drag from elevated energy prices following the Middle East conflict, which has eroded real household incomes and weighed on consumption alongside subdued business confidence and tight financial conditions. Quarterly expansion slowed to 0.4% in Q2 after 0.6% in Q1, while the Treasury’s August survey of forecasters averaged 1.1% for the full year. Market-implied odds reflect these headwinds and the limited scope for stronger momentum absent faster disinflation or policy easing. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation and GDP releases alongside the Bank of England’s policy path.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$78,756结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK GDP data and consensus forecasts position 1-2% annual growth as the dominant market-implied outcome for 2026, with official and independent projections clustered around 1.0-1.1%. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF Article IV assessment highlight the primary drag from elevated energy prices following the Middle East conflict, which has eroded real household incomes and weighed on consumption alongside subdued business confidence and tight financial conditions. Quarterly expansion slowed to 0.4% in Q2 after 0.6% in Q1, while the Treasury’s August survey of forecasters averaged 1.1% for the full year. Market-implied odds reflect these headwinds and the limited scope for stronger momentum absent faster disinflation or policy easing. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation and GDP releases alongside the Bank of England’s policy path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题