Recent forecasts position Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at approximately 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with the market’s leading 0.3–0.5% bucket at 50% implied probability. Firm exports, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, combined with resilient private consumption and capital spending, underpin the consensus. Private-sector estimates range from 0.5% q/q (1.7–1.8% annualized), reflecting limited immediate drag from Middle East tensions and higher energy prices. The Cabinet Office releases first preliminary data on May 19, with any modest upside in retail sales or industrial production likely to reinforce the current pricing ahead of potential Q2 softening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于-0.3%–-0.1% 4.2%
1.2%及以上 1.9%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
≤-0.4% <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3%–-0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
51%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
30%
1.2%及以上
2%
-0.3%–-0.1% 4.2%
1.2%及以上 1.9%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
≤-0.4% <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
$1,057 交易量
1%
-0.3%–-0.1%
$650 交易量
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,000 交易量
2%
0.3–0.5%
$797 交易量
51%
0.6–0.8%
$447 交易量
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 交易量
30%
1.2%及以上
$2,843 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent forecasts position Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at approximately 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with the market’s leading 0.3–0.5% bucket at 50% implied probability. Firm exports, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, combined with resilient private consumption and capital spending, underpin the consensus. Private-sector estimates range from 0.5% q/q (1.7–1.8% annualized), reflecting limited immediate drag from Middle East tensions and higher energy prices. The Cabinet Office releases first preliminary data on May 19, with any modest upside in retail sales or industrial production likely to reinforce the current pricing ahead of potential Q2 softening.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$7,477结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent forecasts position Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at approximately 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with the market’s leading 0.3–0.5% bucket at 50% implied probability. Firm exports, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, combined with resilient private consumption and capital spending, underpin the consensus. Private-sector estimates range from 0.5% q/q (1.7–1.8% annualized), reflecting limited immediate drag from Middle East tensions and higher energy prices. The Cabinet Office releases first preliminary data on May 19, with any modest upside in retail sales or industrial production likely to reinforce the current pricing ahead of potential Q2 softening.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$7,477结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts position Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at approximately 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with the market’s leading 0.3–0.5% bucket at 50% implied probability. Firm exports, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, combined with resilient private consumption and capital spending, underpin the consensus. Private-sector estimates range from 0.5% q/q (1.7–1.8% annualized), reflecting limited immediate drag from Middle East tensions and higher energy prices. The Cabinet Office releases first preliminary data on May 19, with any modest upside in retail sales or industrial production likely to reinforce the current pricing ahead of potential Q2 softening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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