Xi Jinping has further entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through successive high-level purges of senior generals, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and related figures, which analysts interpret as preemptive moves against potential factional rivals rather than signs of instability. These actions, building on earlier removals of defense ministers and Rocket Force commanders, align with Beijing’s emphasis on internal security and loyalty enforcement, leaving no visible organized opposition or public elite dissent capable of mounting a challenge before 2027. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects this institutional resilience and the absence of credible coup indicators in official proceedings or diplomatic reporting. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, severe economic contraction sparking elite fractures, or unforeseen external crises that test party cohesion within the narrow remaining window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$153,940 交易量
$153,940 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$153,940 交易量
$153,940 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has further entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through successive high-level purges of senior generals, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and related figures, which analysts interpret as preemptive moves against potential factional rivals rather than signs of instability. These actions, building on earlier removals of defense ministers and Rocket Force commanders, align with Beijing’s emphasis on internal security and loyalty enforcement, leaving no visible organized opposition or public elite dissent capable of mounting a challenge before 2027. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects this institutional resilience and the absence of credible coup indicators in official proceedings or diplomatic reporting. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, severe economic contraction sparking elite fractures, or unforeseen external crises that test party cohesion within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$153,940结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has further entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through successive high-level purges of senior generals, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and related figures, which analysts interpret as preemptive moves against potential factional rivals rather than signs of instability. These actions, building on earlier removals of defense ministers and Rocket Force commanders, align with Beijing’s emphasis on internal security and loyalty enforcement, leaving no visible organized opposition or public elite dissent capable of mounting a challenge before 2027. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects this institutional resilience and the absence of credible coup indicators in official proceedings or diplomatic reporting. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, severe economic contraction sparking elite fractures, or unforeseen external crises that test party cohesion within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$153,940结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping has further entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through successive high-level purges of senior generals, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and related figures, which analysts interpret as preemptive moves against potential factional rivals rather than signs of instability. These actions, building on earlier removals of defense ministers and Rocket Force commanders, align with Beijing’s emphasis on internal security and loyalty enforcement, leaving no visible organized opposition or public elite dissent capable of mounting a challenge before 2027. Traders’ 95.6% implied probability on “No” reflects this institutional resilience and the absence of credible coup indicators in official proceedings or diplomatic reporting. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, severe economic contraction sparking elite fractures, or unforeseen external crises that test party cohesion within the narrow remaining window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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