China's Communist Party leadership under Xi Jinping maintains tight centralized control through repeated anti-corruption purges, loyalty tests within the People's Liberation Army, and expansive domestic surveillance that have suppressed visible factional challenges. This structure, combined with the absence of major elite defections or public military discontent over the past year, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP authority have been rare since 1949, and recent policy continuity on economic management and foreign affairs further signals internal cohesion. Only unforeseen developments such as a sudden leadership vacuum or acute external crisis could realistically shift those probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$127,680 交易量
$127,680 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$127,680 交易量
$127,680 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's Communist Party leadership under Xi Jinping maintains tight centralized control through repeated anti-corruption purges, loyalty tests within the People's Liberation Army, and expansive domestic surveillance that have suppressed visible factional challenges. This structure, combined with the absence of major elite defections or public military discontent over the past year, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP authority have been rare since 1949, and recent policy continuity on economic management and foreign affairs further signals internal cohesion. Only unforeseen developments such as a sudden leadership vacuum or acute external crisis could realistically shift those probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$127,680结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's Communist Party leadership under Xi Jinping maintains tight centralized control through repeated anti-corruption purges, loyalty tests within the People's Liberation Army, and expansive domestic surveillance that have suppressed visible factional challenges. This structure, combined with the absence of major elite defections or public military discontent over the past year, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP authority have been rare since 1949, and recent policy continuity on economic management and foreign affairs further signals internal cohesion. Only unforeseen developments such as a sudden leadership vacuum or acute external crisis could realistically shift those probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$127,680结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China's Communist Party leadership under Xi Jinping maintains tight centralized control through repeated anti-corruption purges, loyalty tests within the People's Liberation Army, and expansive domestic surveillance that have suppressed visible factional challenges. This structure, combined with the absence of major elite defections or public military discontent over the past year, underpins trader consensus that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Historical precedent shows successful challenges to CCP authority have been rare since 1949, and recent policy continuity on economic management and foreign affairs further signals internal cohesion. Only unforeseen developments such as a sudden leadership vacuum or acute external crisis could realistically shift those probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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