**Ongoing military leadership purges have reinforced trader consensus that a coup attempt remains unlikely through the end of 2026.** Since early 2026, Chinese authorities have removed multiple senior PLA officers, including former Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli, citing factionalism, disloyalty, and disciplinary violations. These actions, confirmed through official party announcements, have reduced the Central Military Commission to a minimal core under Xi Jinping and appear aimed at eliminating potential internal opposition, particularly over Taiwan operational planning. No coordinated effort by military or security factions to seize power has been independently verified or widely characterized as a coup attempt by credible sources meeting market criteria. Historical patterns of CCP control and the absence of recent triggering events keep the implied probability of a qualifying attempt low, though any future leadership friction or policy disputes could still introduce volatility before year-end resolution.