Apple’s pursuit of CXMT DRAM faces steep political and regulatory barriers that explain the market’s 72.5% implied probability against a 2026 purchase. CXMT remains on the U.S. Pentagon blacklist, and recent statements from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick plus a bipartisan Senate letter have urged Apple to avoid the chips entirely amid national-security concerns. While Apple has conducted limited testing and early talks focused on devices sold only in China to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, no supply agreement has been finalized and CXMT reportedly rebuffed deeper negotiations. Traders are pricing in sustained U.S. opposition and the high likelihood that any deal would require waivers unlikely to materialize before year-end. Key near-term catalysts include Apple’s August 21 response to Congress and any administration decision on export controls or blacklisting enforcement.