Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat—to a D+2 partisan lean, transforming it from Republican-held territory into a Democratic pickup opportunity following incumbent Darrell Issa's March 2026 retirement announcement. This open seat, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, features a crowded top-two primary on June 2 with strong Democratic fundraisers like Brandon Riker ($1.9 million raised), Ammar Campa-Najjar ($1.1 million), and Marni von Wilpert ($1 million), facing Republican frontrunner San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond ($1.6 million, Issa-endorsed). An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the fragmented field at 25%, yet trader consensus reflects the district's blue tilt favoring a Democratic general election victory despite primary vote-splitting risks. Recent candidate forums underscore competitiveness ahead of the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
85%
共和党
14%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,754 交易量
85%
共和党
$4,139 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat—to a D+2 partisan lean, transforming it from Republican-held territory into a Democratic pickup opportunity following incumbent Darrell Issa's March 2026 retirement announcement. This open seat, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, features a crowded top-two primary on June 2 with strong Democratic fundraisers like Brandon Riker ($1.9 million raised), Ammar Campa-Najjar ($1.1 million), and Marni von Wilpert ($1 million), facing Republican frontrunner San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond ($1.6 million, Issa-endorsed). An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the fragmented field at 25%, yet trader consensus reflects the district's blue tilt favoring a Democratic general election victory despite primary vote-splitting risks. Recent candidate forums underscore competitiveness ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$9,893结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat—to a D+2 partisan lean, transforming it from Republican-held territory into a Democratic pickup opportunity following incumbent Darrell Issa's March 2026 retirement announcement. This open seat, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, features a crowded top-two primary on June 2 with strong Democratic fundraisers like Brandon Riker ($1.9 million raised), Ammar Campa-Najjar ($1.1 million), and Marni von Wilpert ($1 million), facing Republican frontrunner San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond ($1.6 million, Issa-endorsed). An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the fragmented field at 25%, yet trader consensus reflects the district's blue tilt favoring a Democratic general election victory despite primary vote-splitting risks. Recent candidate forums underscore competitiveness ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,893结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-area seat—to a D+2 partisan lean, transforming it from Republican-held territory into a Democratic pickup opportunity following incumbent Darrell Issa's March 2026 retirement announcement. This open seat, rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, features a crowded top-two primary on June 2 with strong Democratic fundraisers like Brandon Riker ($1.9 million raised), Ammar Campa-Najjar ($1.1 million), and Marni von Wilpert ($1 million), facing Republican frontrunner San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond ($1.6 million, Issa-endorsed). An April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond leading the fragmented field at 25%, yet trader consensus reflects the district's blue tilt favoring a Democratic general election victory despite primary vote-splitting risks. Recent candidate forums underscore competitiveness ahead of the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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