Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,224 交易量
$20,224 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$20,224 交易量
$20,224 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$18,997 交易量
94%
共和党
$1,227 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$20,224结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,224结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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