The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 19th congressional district, where Donald Trump carried the seat by roughly 28 points in 2024, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jodey Arrington's retirement opened the seat, but Republican Tom Sell secured the nomination after prevailing in the May 2026 primary runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican. Democratic nominee Kyle Rable faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent GOP margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,725 交易量
$15,725 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$15,725 交易量
$15,725 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,265 交易量
94%
民主党
$13,460 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 19th congressional district, where Donald Trump carried the seat by roughly 28 points in 2024, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jodey Arrington's retirement opened the seat, but Republican Tom Sell secured the nomination after prevailing in the May 2026 primary runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican. Democratic nominee Kyle Rable faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent GOP margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$15,725结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 19th congressional district, where Donald Trump carried the seat by roughly 28 points in 2024, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jodey Arrington's retirement opened the seat, but Republican Tom Sell secured the nomination after prevailing in the May 2026 primary runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican. Democratic nominee Kyle Rable faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent GOP margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,725结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 19th congressional district, where Donald Trump carried the seat by roughly 28 points in 2024, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jodey Arrington's retirement opened the seat, but Republican Tom Sell secured the nomination after prevailing in the May 2026 primary runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican. Democratic nominee Kyle Rable faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent GOP margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited pathways for an upset before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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