Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
90%
共和党
10%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$2,341 交易量
90%
共和党
$2,766 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$5,106结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,106结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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