Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,940 交易量
$34,940 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$34,940 交易量
$34,940 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$16,177 交易量
95%
共和党
$18,762 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$34,940结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,940结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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