Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
90%
共和党
10%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$4,585 交易量
90%
共和党
$4,107 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
交易量
$8,692结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,692结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETDemocratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, with trader consensus reflecting the impact of recent redistricting under Proposition 50 that added Stockton and shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean. Gray, who narrowly flipped the Central Valley district in 2024, advanced easily through the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic based on the updated map, Gray's incumbency advantages, and fundraising edge. The matchup remains the primary near-term variable, though the district's underlying partisan shift and historical performance under the new lines support the current implied probabilities for a Democratic hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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