Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal in early March 2026 opened the Montana Senate race, yet trader consensus favors a Republican win at 78% implied probability, driven by former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme's emergence as the party frontrunner with endorsements from Daines, Donald Trump, and Gov. Greg Gianforte in the June 2 GOP primary. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and Green Beret veteran, has fueled 46% odds through $1.3 million fundraising, cross-party backing from Jon Tester and Andrew Yang, and a ballot push nearing the 13,327-signature threshold. Democrats languish at 3.5% amid a fragmented primary led by Reilly Neill, reflecting Montana's GOP lean and weak opposition cohesion. Primaries could shift dynamics before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于共和党 78%
无党派人士 44.0%
民主党 3.5%
$72,334 交易量
$72,334 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
78%
无党派人士
44%
民主党
3%
共和党 78%
无党派人士 44.0%
民主党 3.5%
$72,334 交易量
$72,334 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$37,391 交易量
78%
无党派人士
$1,493 交易量
44%
民主党
$33,450 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal in early March 2026 opened the Montana Senate race, yet trader consensus favors a Republican win at 78% implied probability, driven by former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme's emergence as the party frontrunner with endorsements from Daines, Donald Trump, and Gov. Greg Gianforte in the June 2 GOP primary. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and Green Beret veteran, has fueled 46% odds through $1.3 million fundraising, cross-party backing from Jon Tester and Andrew Yang, and a ballot push nearing the 13,327-signature threshold. Democrats languish at 3.5% amid a fragmented primary led by Reilly Neill, reflecting Montana's GOP lean and weak opposition cohesion. Primaries could shift dynamics before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$72,334结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal in early March 2026 opened the Montana Senate race, yet trader consensus favors a Republican win at 78% implied probability, driven by former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme's emergence as the party frontrunner with endorsements from Daines, Donald Trump, and Gov. Greg Gianforte in the June 2 GOP primary. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and Green Beret veteran, has fueled 46% odds through $1.3 million fundraising, cross-party backing from Jon Tester and Andrew Yang, and a ballot push nearing the 13,327-signature threshold. Democrats languish at 3.5% amid a fragmented primary led by Reilly Neill, reflecting Montana's GOP lean and weak opposition cohesion. Primaries could shift dynamics before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$72,334结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal in early March 2026 opened the Montana Senate race, yet trader consensus favors a Republican win at 78% implied probability, driven by former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme's emergence as the party frontrunner with endorsements from Daines, Donald Trump, and Gov. Greg Gianforte in the June 2 GOP primary. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president and Green Beret veteran, has fueled 46% odds through $1.3 million fundraising, cross-party backing from Jon Tester and Andrew Yang, and a ballot push nearing the 13,327-signature threshold. Democrats languish at 3.5% amid a fragmented primary led by Reilly Neill, reflecting Montana's GOP lean and weak opposition cohesion. Primaries could shift dynamics before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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