Republican Senate majority defense in the 2026 midterms hinges on battleground races in Michigan (open Democratic seat), North Carolina, Maine (incumbent Susan Collins), and Ohio's special election vacancy, where recent polling averages project a narrow 51-49 GOP edge but toss-up dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around 47-51 seats. With Republicans starting from a 53-47 advantage yet facing seven retirements to Democrats' four, early May forecasts from sources like Race to the WH and Polymarket fluctuations—after a brief April Democratic favoritism—underscore uncertainty amplified by super PAC investments in eight contests and historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Fundraising surges, national economic trends, or candidate missteps in swing states could decisively shift the path to 50+ or sub-48 outcomes before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,287,116 交易量
$2,287,116 交易量
≤47
26%
48
11%
49
16%
50
19%
51
17%
52
6%
53
4%
54
1%
55
1%
56
2%
57+
3%
$2,287,116 交易量
$2,287,116 交易量
≤47
$76,212 交易量
26%
48
$29,274 交易量
11%
49
$25,597 交易量
16%
50
$78,795 交易量
19%
51
$175,240 交易量
17%
52
$523,879 交易量
6%
53
$31,495 交易量
4%
54
$726,188 交易量
1%
55
$412,032 交易量
1%
56
$157,540 交易量
2%
57+
$50,863 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Senate majority defense in the 2026 midterms hinges on battleground races in Michigan (open Democratic seat), North Carolina, Maine (incumbent Susan Collins), and Ohio's special election vacancy, where recent polling averages project a narrow 51-49 GOP edge but toss-up dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around 47-51 seats. With Republicans starting from a 53-47 advantage yet facing seven retirements to Democrats' four, early May forecasts from sources like Race to the WH and Polymarket fluctuations—after a brief April Democratic favoritism—underscore uncertainty amplified by super PAC investments in eight contests and historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Fundraising surges, national economic trends, or candidate missteps in swing states could decisively shift the path to 50+ or sub-48 outcomes before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
交易量
$2,287,116市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Senate majority defense in the 2026 midterms hinges on battleground races in Michigan (open Democratic seat), North Carolina, Maine (incumbent Susan Collins), and Ohio's special election vacancy, where recent polling averages project a narrow 51-49 GOP edge but toss-up dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around 47-51 seats. With Republicans starting from a 53-47 advantage yet facing seven retirements to Democrats' four, early May forecasts from sources like Race to the WH and Polymarket fluctuations—after a brief April Democratic favoritism—underscore uncertainty amplified by super PAC investments in eight contests and historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Fundraising surges, national economic trends, or candidate missteps in swing states could decisively shift the path to 50+ or sub-48 outcomes before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$2,287,116市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Senate majority defense in the 2026 midterms hinges on battleground races in Michigan (open Democratic seat), North Carolina, Maine (incumbent Susan Collins), and Ohio's special election vacancy, where recent polling averages project a narrow 51-49 GOP edge but toss-up dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around 47-51 seats. With Republicans starting from a 53-47 advantage yet facing seven retirements to Democrats' four, early May forecasts from sources like Race to the WH and Polymarket fluctuations—after a brief April Democratic favoritism—underscore uncertainty amplified by super PAC investments in eight contests and historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Fundraising surges, national economic trends, or candidate missteps in swing states could decisively shift the path to 50+ or sub-48 outcomes before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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