Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (74%), driven by the strong incumbency advantage and paucity of credible challengers among the nine running for re-election in Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Virginia. No primaries featuring these incumbents have occurred as of mid-May 2026, with early contests like West Virginia's May 12 open-seat race and Illinois' March 17 crowded field (post-Durbin retirement) resolving without incumbent losses. Recent retirements by four Democrats—Durbin, Peters, Shaheen, and Smith—have opened seats but shielded the field from broader vulnerability, while limited polling shows incumbents like Hickenlooper and Markey leading progressive challengers amid low historical primary upset rates. Upcoming May 19 primaries in Georgia and Oregon pose minimal risk per trader pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 69%
2 32.4%
1 16.7%
4 2.6%
最新
最新
0
74%
1
17%
2
32%
3
33%
4
3%
>4
7%
0 69%
2 32.4%
1 16.7%
4 2.6%
最新
最新
0
$1,394 交易量
74%
1
$1,267 交易量
17%
2
$1,058 交易量
32%
3
$376 交易量
33%
4
$364 交易量
3%
>4
$280 交易量
7%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (74%), driven by the strong incumbency advantage and paucity of credible challengers among the nine running for re-election in Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Virginia. No primaries featuring these incumbents have occurred as of mid-May 2026, with early contests like West Virginia's May 12 open-seat race and Illinois' March 17 crowded field (post-Durbin retirement) resolving without incumbent losses. Recent retirements by four Democrats—Durbin, Peters, Shaheen, and Smith—have opened seats but shielded the field from broader vulnerability, while limited polling shows incumbents like Hickenlooper and Markey leading progressive challengers amid low historical primary upset rates. Upcoming May 19 primaries in Georgia and Oregon pose minimal risk per trader pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$4,737市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (74%), driven by the strong incumbency advantage and paucity of credible challengers among the nine running for re-election in Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Virginia. No primaries featuring these incumbents have occurred as of mid-May 2026, with early contests like West Virginia's May 12 open-seat race and Illinois' March 17 crowded field (post-Durbin retirement) resolving without incumbent losses. Recent retirements by four Democrats—Durbin, Peters, Shaheen, and Smith—have opened seats but shielded the field from broader vulnerability, while limited polling shows incumbents like Hickenlooper and Markey leading progressive challengers amid low historical primary upset rates. Upcoming May 19 primaries in Georgia and Oregon pose minimal risk per trader pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$4,737市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors zero Democratic Senate incumbents losing their primaries (74%), driven by the strong incumbency advantage and paucity of credible challengers among the nine running for re-election in Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Virginia. No primaries featuring these incumbents have occurred as of mid-May 2026, with early contests like West Virginia's May 12 open-seat race and Illinois' March 17 crowded field (post-Durbin retirement) resolving without incumbent losses. Recent retirements by four Democrats—Durbin, Peters, Shaheen, and Smith—have opened seats but shielded the field from broader vulnerability, while limited polling shows incumbents like Hickenlooper and Markey leading progressive challengers amid low historical primary upset rates. Upcoming May 19 primaries in Georgia and Oregon pose minimal risk per trader pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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