Trader consensus favors Republicans securing below 190 House seats after the November 2026 midterms at 25.5%, reflecting a projected net loss of over 25 from their current slim 217-seat majority amid persistent Democratic leads in generic ballot polling averaging 3-5 points and historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26-seat drops. Recent Inside Elections ratings from May 8 identify 11 tossups—mostly GOP-held districts in battlegrounds like Arizona, California, Iowa, and Pennsylvania—while Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted eight races toward Democrats last week, amplifying vulnerability. Ongoing redistricting battles provide Republicans some defensive edges, but souring approval for President Trump and special election Democratic gains sustain downward pressure; primaries through summer could clarify candidate strength and consolidate odds around 190-200 if GOP fundraising surges or economic indicators improve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于190 26%
190-194 13%
200-204 12.2%
195-199 12%
$230,954 交易量
$230,954 交易量
2026-11-03
少于190
26%
190-194
13%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
8%
225-229
2%
230+
1%
少于190 26%
190-194 13%
200-204 12.2%
195-199 12%
$230,954 交易量
$230,954 交易量
2026-11-03
少于190
$16,467 交易量
26%
190-194
$7,767 交易量
13%
195-199
$27,848 交易量
12%
200-204
$22,075 交易量
12%
205-209
$35,318 交易量
10%
210-214
$12,332 交易量
9%
215-219
$7,951 交易量
11%
220-224
$53,499 交易量
8%
225-229
$21,300 交易量
2%
230+
$26,397 交易量
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Republicans securing below 190 House seats after the November 2026 midterms at 25.5%, reflecting a projected net loss of over 25 from their current slim 217-seat majority amid persistent Democratic leads in generic ballot polling averaging 3-5 points and historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26-seat drops. Recent Inside Elections ratings from May 8 identify 11 tossups—mostly GOP-held districts in battlegrounds like Arizona, California, Iowa, and Pennsylvania—while Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted eight races toward Democrats last week, amplifying vulnerability. Ongoing redistricting battles provide Republicans some defensive edges, but souring approval for President Trump and special election Democratic gains sustain downward pressure; primaries through summer could clarify candidate strength and consolidate odds around 190-200 if GOP fundraising surges or economic indicators improve.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$230,954结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Republicans securing below 190 House seats after the November 2026 midterms at 25.5%, reflecting a projected net loss of over 25 from their current slim 217-seat majority amid persistent Democratic leads in generic ballot polling averaging 3-5 points and historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26-seat drops. Recent Inside Elections ratings from May 8 identify 11 tossups—mostly GOP-held districts in battlegrounds like Arizona, California, Iowa, and Pennsylvania—while Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted eight races toward Democrats last week, amplifying vulnerability. Ongoing redistricting battles provide Republicans some defensive edges, but souring approval for President Trump and special election Democratic gains sustain downward pressure; primaries through summer could clarify candidate strength and consolidate odds around 190-200 if GOP fundraising surges or economic indicators improve.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$230,954结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Republicans securing below 190 House seats after the November 2026 midterms at 25.5%, reflecting a projected net loss of over 25 from their current slim 217-seat majority amid persistent Democratic leads in generic ballot polling averaging 3-5 points and historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26-seat drops. Recent Inside Elections ratings from May 8 identify 11 tossups—mostly GOP-held districts in battlegrounds like Arizona, California, Iowa, and Pennsylvania—while Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted eight races toward Democrats last week, amplifying vulnerability. Ongoing redistricting battles provide Republicans some defensive edges, but souring approval for President Trump and special election Democratic gains sustain downward pressure; primaries through summer could clarify candidate strength and consolidate odds around 190-200 if GOP fundraising surges or economic indicators improve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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