Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority near 218-220 seats heading into the November 2026 midterms, but face a challenging environment as the president's party. Democratic leads of 6-7 points on the generic congressional ballot, combined with historically low presidential approval and strong Democratic performance in recent special elections, have shifted trader expectations toward sizable Republican losses. The wide distribution of probabilities across seat ranges reflects uncertainty over national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, redistricting impacts, and outcomes in roughly 40-50 competitive districts. Recent forecasts from nonpartisan raters project Republican totals in the low 200s or below, with consolidation behind specific ranges likely hinging on economic indicators, primary results, and any shifts in the final campaign weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于190 27%
190-194 16%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,663 交易量
$285,663 交易量
2026-11-03
少于190
27%
190-194
16%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
1%
225-229
1%
230+
3%
少于190 27%
190-194 16%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,663 交易量
$285,663 交易量
2026-11-03
少于190
$32,408 交易量
27%
190-194
$13,637 交易量
16%
195-199
$32,609 交易量
12%
200-204
$24,750 交易量
12%
205-209
$40,227 交易量
11%
210-214
$15,669 交易量
9%
215-219
$11,450 交易量
7%
220-224
$59,213 交易量
1%
225-229
$24,724 交易量
1%
230+
$30,975 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority near 218-220 seats heading into the November 2026 midterms, but face a challenging environment as the president's party. Democratic leads of 6-7 points on the generic congressional ballot, combined with historically low presidential approval and strong Democratic performance in recent special elections, have shifted trader expectations toward sizable Republican losses. The wide distribution of probabilities across seat ranges reflects uncertainty over national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, redistricting impacts, and outcomes in roughly 40-50 competitive districts. Recent forecasts from nonpartisan raters project Republican totals in the low 200s or below, with consolidation behind specific ranges likely hinging on economic indicators, primary results, and any shifts in the final campaign weeks.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$285,663结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority near 218-220 seats heading into the November 2026 midterms, but face a challenging environment as the president's party. Democratic leads of 6-7 points on the generic congressional ballot, combined with historically low presidential approval and strong Democratic performance in recent special elections, have shifted trader expectations toward sizable Republican losses. The wide distribution of probabilities across seat ranges reflects uncertainty over national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, redistricting impacts, and outcomes in roughly 40-50 competitive districts. Recent forecasts from nonpartisan raters project Republican totals in the low 200s or below, with consolidation behind specific ranges likely hinging on economic indicators, primary results, and any shifts in the final campaign weeks.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$285,663结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority near 218-220 seats heading into the November 2026 midterms, but face a challenging environment as the president's party. Democratic leads of 6-7 points on the generic congressional ballot, combined with historically low presidential approval and strong Democratic performance in recent special elections, have shifted trader expectations toward sizable Republican losses. The wide distribution of probabilities across seat ranges reflects uncertainty over national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, redistricting impacts, and outcomes in roughly 40-50 competitive districts. Recent forecasts from nonpartisan raters project Republican totals in the low 200s or below, with consolidation behind specific ranges likely hinging on economic indicators, primary results, and any shifts in the final campaign weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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