Aisha Wahab leads the market for California's 14th congressional district special election runoff at 85 percent, reflecting her stronger primary performance and higher statewide profile as a sitting state senator. In the June 16 special primary, Wahab captured roughly 38-43 percent of the vote while Melissa Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, placed second with around 17 percent; no candidate reached a majority, triggering the August 18 contest to complete Eric Swalwell's unexpired term following his April resignation. The heavily Democratic East Bay district has seen substantial outside spending and debate over public safety, yet Wahab's earlier vote share and legislative experience have shaped trader consensus ahead of the imminent runoff.