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政治·众议院

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

icon for Speaker of the House after the midterms?
政治·众议院

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 80%

Mike Johnson 10.4%

Pete Aguilar 10.2%

Jim Jordan 6.3%

Polymarket
最新

Hakeem Jeffries 80%

Mike Johnson 10.4%

Pete Aguilar 10.2%

Jim Jordan 6.3%

Polymarket
最新
icon for Hakeem Jeffries

Hakeem Jeffries

$1,377 交易量

80%

icon for Katherine Clark

Katherine Clark

$55 交易量

5%

icon for Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar

$65 交易量

10%

icon for Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan

$88 交易量

6%

icon for Steve Scalise

Steve Scalise

$55 交易量

4%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$65 交易量

10%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Democratic leads in recent generic congressional ballot polls, including Ipsos/Reuters and YouGov/Economist surveys from early May 2026 showing 5- to 6-point advantages, have positioned Hakeem Jeffries as the strong trader favorite to become Speaker if Democrats regain the House majority after the November midterms. This outlook aligns with historical midterm patterns disadvantaging the president's party and structural factors such as more Republican retirements and competitive battleground maps. Jeffries, the current House minority leader, has repeatedly pledged a Democratic takeover and outlined priorities including voting rights legislation. Lower probabilities for Mike Johnson and other Republicans reflect expectations of a narrow Democratic edge, while secondary Democratic names like Pete Aguilar and Katherine Clark trail due to Jeffries's established caucus support. Upcoming primaries and redistricting developments could still shift these dynamics before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,704
结束日期
2027-01-03
市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Democratic leads in recent generic congressional ballot polls, including Ipsos/Reuters and YouGov/Economist surveys from early May 2026 showing 5- to 6-point advantages, have positioned Hakeem Jeffries as the strong trader favorite to become Speaker if Democrats regain the House majority after the November midterms. This outlook aligns with historical midterm patterns disadvantaging the president's party and structural factors such as more Republican retirements and competitive battleground maps. Jeffries, the current House minority leader, has repeatedly pledged a Democratic takeover and outlined priorities including voting rights legislation. Lower probabilities for Mike Johnson and other Republicans reflect expectations of a narrow Democratic edge, while secondary Democratic names like Pete Aguilar and Katherine Clark trail due to Jeffries's established caucus support. Upcoming primaries and redistricting developments could still shift these dynamics before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,704
结束日期
2027-01-03
市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Hakeem Jeffries"，概率为 80%，其次是"Pete Aguilar"，概率为 10%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 80¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 80%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Apr 8, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"的当前领先者是"Hakeem Jeffries"，概率为 80%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 80%。紧随其后的结果是"Pete Aguilar"，概率为 10%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。