**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current baseline for trader expectations.** Ballotpedia and other trackers list seven GOP senators among the eleven total Senate incumbents stepping aside, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions, spread from late 2025 into early 2026, reflect factors such as age and term length, interest in gubernatorial bids or other offices, and institutional pressures for turnover. With the 2026 Class II seats already shaping up and few additional announcements in recent months, traders view further departures as unlikely before filing deadlines close, keeping the probability concentrated on seven while assigning lower odds to scenarios involving more last-minute exits or unexpected candidacies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7 77%
11 11.3%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,019 交易量
$101,019 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
8%
12人以上
<1%
7 77%
11 11.3%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,019 交易量
$101,019 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
$22,734 交易量
1%
5
$17,485 交易量
3%
6
$27,247 交易量
1%
7
$16,977 交易量
77%
8
$4,602 交易量
1%
9
$2,208 交易量
5%
10
$1,839 交易量
2%
11
$2,845 交易量
8%
12人以上
$5,082 交易量
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current baseline for trader expectations.**
Ballotpedia and other trackers list seven GOP senators among the eleven total Senate incumbents stepping aside, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions, spread from late 2025 into early 2026, reflect factors such as age and term length, interest in gubernatorial bids or other offices, and institutional pressures for turnover. With the 2026 Class II seats already shaping up and few additional announcements in recent months, traders view further departures as unlikely before filing deadlines close, keeping the probability concentrated on seven while assigning lower odds to scenarios involving more last-minute exits or unexpected candidacies.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$101,019结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current baseline for trader expectations.**
Ballotpedia and other trackers list seven GOP senators among the eleven total Senate incumbents stepping aside, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions, spread from late 2025 into early 2026, reflect factors such as age and term length, interest in gubernatorial bids or other offices, and institutional pressures for turnover. With the 2026 Class II seats already shaping up and few additional announcements in recent months, traders view further departures as unlikely before filing deadlines close, keeping the probability concentrated on seven while assigning lower odds to scenarios involving more last-minute exits or unexpected candidacies.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$101,019结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current baseline for trader expectations.** Ballotpedia and other trackers list seven GOP senators among the eleven total Senate incumbents stepping aside, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL). These decisions, spread from late 2025 into early 2026, reflect factors such as age and term length, interest in gubernatorial bids or other offices, and institutional pressures for turnover. With the 2026 Class II seats already shaping up and few additional announcements in recent months, traders view further departures as unlikely before filing deadlines close, keeping the probability concentrated on seven while assigning lower odds to scenarios involving more last-minute exits or unexpected candidacies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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