Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7 63%
11 18.6%
8 14.6%
6 10.3%
$73,769 交易量
$73,769 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
1%
5
5%
6
10%
7
63%
8
17%
9
3%
10
6%
11
19%
12人以上
1%
7 63%
11 18.6%
8 14.6%
6 10.3%
$73,769 交易量
$73,769 交易量
2026-08-31
少于5人
$20,070 交易量
1%
5
$15,535 交易量
5%
6
$26,450 交易量
10%
7
$2,145 交易量
63%
8
$1,599 交易量
17%
9
$1,328 交易量
3%
10
$1,303 交易量
6%
11
$923 交易量
19%
12人以上
$4,416 交易量
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$73,769结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$73,769结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in this market centers on seven Republican senators not seeking re-election for 2026, as that is the confirmed total announced through mid-May 2026. Key factors include individual retirement decisions driven by age, shifting party dynamics, and opportunities for other offices, with Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Steve Daines of Montana, Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama—who is running for governor—accounting for the count. Recent March 2026 announcements by Armstrong and Daines reinforced the current total without triggering additional retirements, while earlier decisions by McConnell in early 2025 and others established the baseline. The elevated probability for seven reflects limited further announcements expected before filing deadlines, though late-cycle shifts remain possible amid ongoing midterm pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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