Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research shows former Rep. Mary Peltola leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan by roughly five to six points in the August 18 top-four primary, with both well ahead of lesser-known challengers. This positioning, combined with Peltola’s statewide name recognition from her House tenure and Sullivan’s status as a two-term Republican in a state that uses ranked-choice voting in the general, drives trader expectations of a narrow Peltola victory. The heavy weighting on “Other” alongside Peltola’s 3–6 percent band reflects uncertainty over exact margins and the impact of additional candidates on vote distribution. No major late developments have altered the stable polling picture in the final days before the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于佩尔托拉 3–6% 40%
佩尔托拉＜3% 21%
佩尔托拉 6–9% 18%
沙利文 <3% 8%
$10,587 交易量
$10,587 交易量
2026-08-18
佩尔托拉15%+
2%
佩尔托拉 12-15%
4%
佩尔托拉9-12%
6%
佩尔托拉 6–9%
18%
佩尔托拉 3–6%
40%
佩尔托拉＜3%
21%
沙利文 <3%
8%
Sullivan 3-6%
4%
Sullivan 6-9%
2%
沙利文9–12%
1%
沙利文12%+
1%
佩尔托拉 3–6% 40%
佩尔托拉＜3% 21%
佩尔托拉 6–9% 18%
沙利文 <3% 8%
$10,587 交易量
$10,587 交易量
2026-08-18
佩尔托拉15%+
$200 交易量
2%
佩尔托拉 12-15%
$159 交易量
4%
佩尔托拉9-12%
$159 交易量
6%
佩尔托拉 6–9%
$479 交易量
18%
佩尔托拉 3–6%
$6,366 交易量
40%
佩尔托拉＜3%
$979 交易量
21%
沙利文 <3%
$366 交易量
8%
Sullivan 3-6%
$773 交易量
4%
Sullivan 6-9%
$438 交易量
2%
沙利文9–12%
$332 交易量
1%
沙利文12%+
$337 交易量
1%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research shows former Rep. Mary Peltola leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan by roughly five to six points in the August 18 top-four primary, with both well ahead of lesser-known challengers. This positioning, combined with Peltola’s statewide name recognition from her House tenure and Sullivan’s status as a two-term Republican in a state that uses ranked-choice voting in the general, drives trader expectations of a narrow Peltola victory. The heavy weighting on “Other” alongside Peltola’s 3–6 percent band reflects uncertainty over exact margins and the impact of additional candidates on vote distribution. No major late developments have altered the stable polling picture in the final days before the primary.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$10,587结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research shows former Rep. Mary Peltola leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan by roughly five to six points in the August 18 top-four primary, with both well ahead of lesser-known challengers. This positioning, combined with Peltola’s statewide name recognition from her House tenure and Sullivan’s status as a two-term Republican in a state that uses ranked-choice voting in the general, drives trader expectations of a narrow Peltola victory. The heavy weighting on “Other” alongside Peltola’s 3–6 percent band reflects uncertainty over exact margins and the impact of additional candidates on vote distribution. No major late developments have altered the stable polling picture in the final days before the primary.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$10,587结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research shows former Rep. Mary Peltola leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan by roughly five to six points in the August 18 top-four primary, with both well ahead of lesser-known challengers. This positioning, combined with Peltola’s statewide name recognition from her House tenure and Sullivan’s status as a two-term Republican in a state that uses ranked-choice voting in the general, drives trader expectations of a narrow Peltola victory. The heavy weighting on “Other” alongside Peltola’s 3–6 percent band reflects uncertainty over exact margins and the impact of additional candidates on vote distribution. No major late developments have altered the stable polling picture in the final days before the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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