As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于32–35 30.2%
24–27 22%
28–31 18%
20–23 15.4%
$31,637 交易量
$31,637 交易量
2026-08-31
少于20
2%
20–23
15%
24–27
22%
28–31
18%
32–35
30%
36–39
3%
40人以上
16%
32–35 30.2%
24–27 22%
28–31 18%
20–23 15.4%
$31,637 交易量
$31,637 交易量
2026-08-31
少于20
$16,991 交易量
2%
20–23
$5,244 交易量
15%
24–27
$4,156 交易量
22%
28–31
$1,164 交易量
18%
32–35
$3,574 交易量
30%
36–39
$508 交易量
3%
40人以上
$0 交易量
16%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$31,637结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$31,637结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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