**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于20–23 48.0%
24–27 33%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$45,075 交易量
$45,075 交易量
2026-08-30
少于20
1%
20–23
48%
24–27
33%
28–31
10%
32–35
7%
36–39
<1%
40人以上
7%
20–23 48.0%
24–27 33%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$45,075 交易量
$45,075 交易量
2026-08-30
少于20
$17,832 交易量
1%
20–23
$9,852 交易量
48%
24–27
$7,874 交易量
33%
28–31
$1,930 交易量
10%
32–35
$4,533 交易量
7%
36–39
$1,355 交易量
<1%
40人以上
$1,699 交易量
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$45,075结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$45,075结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking show roughly 23–25 Democratic House members have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bucket at 48%.** This total includes both full retirements from public office (around 15 Democrats) and departures to pursue Senate, gubernatorial, or other races (roughly 8–10 more). High-profile exits by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Dwight Evans, Lloyd Doggett, and others—many announced in late 2025 after off-year results—have driven the count, with additional announcements continuing into 2026. Republicans account for a larger share of total departures (37 vs. 23 Democrats), consistent with historical patterns of the minority party seeing elevated attrition before midterms. The 24–27 range sits at 33.5% as traders weigh whether a handful of late announcements or primary challenges could push the final Democratic total higher before filing deadlines close. No major new Democratic departures have been reported in recent weeks, keeping the distribution concentrated in the low-to-mid 20s.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题